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Taiwan dismisses Venezuela operation as model for China
Taiwanese officials and security analysts firmly reject suggestions that the recent U.S. military operation in Venezuela serves as either a deterrent to Chinese aggression or a blueprint Beijing might adopt against the island. Viral discussions on Chinese social media platforms, including Weibo, have drawn over 440 million views by likening the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3 to a potential scenario for Taiwan. Legislators and international experts, however, argue that such parallels stem from a fundamental misunderstanding of the distinct contexts.
Taiwanese legislator Wang Ting-yu dismissed the notion outright, stating, "China is not the United States, and Taiwan is not Venezuela." He added that while Beijing has never lacked hostility toward Taiwan, it truly lacks feasible means to execute such an operation, noting, "If China could pull it off, it would have done so long ago."
Experts maintain that China's strategic calculus on Taiwan remains unaltered by events in Latin America. William Yang, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told CNN that U.S. actions in Venezuela will likely have "no direct or fundamental effect" on Beijing's thinking. Factors shaping China's timeline include its domestic economy, People's Liberation Army capabilities, Taiwan's internal politics, and Washington's Taiwan policy.
Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund, emphasized that China "plays the long game" and believes global trends favor its objectives. She indicated Beijing would not drastically shift its Taiwan approach based on Venezuelan developments. Ryan Hass, a former U.S. diplomat now at the Brookings Institution, cautioned against drawing direct parallels, asserting that any change in Peking's strategy would not stem from U.S. moves in Venezuela.
Some analysts highlight a greater risk for Taiwan: potential overextension of U.S. resources. President Trump has pledged to "manage" Venezuela until a "safe, appropriate, and judicious transition" occurs, without specifying a timeline. A prolonged entanglement there could divert military assets and attention needed for Indo-Pacific contingencies.
Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs is closely monitoring Venezuela, confirming the safety of around 200 Taiwanese citizens there. It expressed hopes for a "smooth and peaceful transition to democracy" in the country while reaffirming commitment to cooperation with the United States and democratic partners. China's Foreign Ministry condemned the U.S. operation as a "hegemonic act" severely violating international law but made no official links to its Taiwan policy.
