Gulf states raise oil output as Iran tensions escalate

Saturday 28 February 2026 - 12:00

By: Dakir Madiha

Gulf states raise oil output as Iran tensions escalate

Major Gulf producers increased oil exports ahead of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, seeking to stabilize global markets in case of supply disruptions. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) released additional volumes of Murban crude for April delivery, which lowered the grade’s spot premiums to under two dollars per barrel against Dubai benchmarks, according to trade sources cited by Reuters. Saudi Arabia also raised exports to an average of 7.3 million barrels per day during the first 24 days of February, the highest since April 2023, Bloomberg data showed.

Regional exports climbed sharply as Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates jointly shipped around 8.82 million barrels per day in early February, almost 600,000 barrels more than in January, based on data from Vortexa. Sources within Riyadh said Saudi Arabia launched a temporary production strategy to safeguard supply lines in anticipation of potential military escalation.

Iran accelerated its own exports before hostilities intensified. Between February 15 and 20, tankers carried roughly 20 million barrels from Kharg Island, three times more than the same period in January. Bloomberg, citing Kpler data, estimated Iranian shipments exceeded three million barrels per day. Tehran Times reported that total February exports of crude and condensate reached 2.2 million barrels per day, a fifty percent increase over recent averages.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) now face a crucial March 1 meeting. Members are expected to revisit plans to lift output by about 137,000 barrels per day for April after pausing earlier adjustments due to weak demand. Sources familiar with discussions said the alliance may approve a larger increase given new geopolitical pressures.

Analysts from S&P Global noted that Gulf producers hold enough spare capacity to offset a full loss of Iran’s 1.6 million barrels per day in exports. However, that supply cushion would depend on the continued safe passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the route for roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments.