Populists Gain Ground in Pivotal Elections in Romania, Poland and Portugal

Sunday 18 May 2025 - 10:03

By: Zahouani Ilham

Populists Gain Ground in Pivotal Elections in Romania, Poland and Portugal

As voters in Romania, Poland, and Portugal cast their ballots in key elections, the political landscape across Europe faces a potential shift toward populist influence. Sunday's votes could give right-wing parties enough support to shape future coalitions or legislative directions in their respective countries.

Romania: Nationalist Eurosceptic Faces Pro-European Independent

In Romania’s presidential run-off, voters must choose between hard-right nationalist George Simion and centrist independent Nicușor Dan. Simion, who opposes EU leadership and military aid to Ukraine, surged ahead in the first round, triggering the fall of a pro-Western government and economic uncertainty. He has campaigned on nationalism and reform, particularly appealing to the Romanian diaspora.

Dan, the mayor of Bucharest, represents a pro-European and pro-NATO stance, advocating for anti-corruption efforts and continued support for Ukraine. The Romanian presidency wields significant influence, including military and foreign policy powers, and will also be critical in appointing a prime minister capable of reducing the EU’s largest budget deficit.

The race remains close, with turnout especially among the diaspora likely to be decisive.

Poland: A Referendum on Europe or Nationalism

Polish voters are choosing between continuing along Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European path or reverting to nationalist politics aligned with former allies of U.S. President Donald Trump. The presidential race is led by pro-EU Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, who promises to strengthen ties with NATO and the EU, and conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party.

The presidency in Poland has limited power but holds the authority to veto laws, making it pivotal in determining the fate of Tusk’s efforts to reverse judicial reforms enacted under PiS.

Other candidates include far-right leader Slawomir Mentzen, centrist speaker Szymon Hołownia, and leftist Magdalena Biejat. With polls showing a likely runoff, the election will be a crucial test of Poland’s political direction.

Portugal: Centre-Right Gains but No Majority in Sight

Portugal’s third general election in three years appears to favor the centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD), led by Prime Minister Luis Montenegro. Though expected to win more seats than the Socialist Party (PS), Montenegro will likely fall short of an outright majority in parliament.

The far-right Chega party is projected to finish third, positioning itself as a potential kingmaker, though Montenegro has rejected any coalition with them. His campaign has focused on economic reforms, reduced youth taxes, increased pensions, and stricter immigration policies, in contrast to the PS’s more liberal legacy on immigration.

Despite recent political scandals, most voters remain unmoved, suggesting Montenegro's toughened stance may resonate more than accusations from his opponents.