Aviation leaders warn of supply chain strains and geopolitical risks

Monday 02 February 2026 - 13:20

By: Dakir Madiha

Aviation leaders warn of supply chain strains and geopolitical risks

Aviation industry leaders gathered at the Changi Aviation Summit in Singapore raised alarms over persistent supply chain disruptions and escalating geopolitical tensions that threaten the sector's ability to meet surging global demand. Speaking ahead of Asia's largest airshow, Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), highlighted how pandemic-era bottlenecks continue to burden airlines worldwide with no quick resolution in sight.

Walsh told an audience of about 350 executives and regulators that these issues remain a major drag on operations. Geopolitical shifts are already reshaping global air cargo flows: shipments between Asia and North America dipped 0.8 percent last year, marking the first decline in years, while Europe-Asia volumes surged 10.3 percent amid U.S. import tariffs and broader political realignments.

Aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing grapple with supplier constraints lingering from the pandemic, while engine makers GE Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney face mounting pressure to balance new production with maintenance for existing fleets. Industry estimates peg supply chain disruptions at over $11 billion in added costs, with little relief on the horizon.

Concerns intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump's recent demand that Canada certify certain Gulfstream business jets or face decertification of Canadian-made aircraft and 50 percent import tariffs. This move stokes fears that the decades-old Chicago Convention, which underpins global aviation safety, could become a tool in geopolitical bargaining.

Toshiyuki Onuma, the newly elected chairman of the International Civil Aviation Organization's governing council, stressed the need for cooperation to build a safer, more sustainable industry. A senior regulator told Reuters there can be no bargaining over certification standards. European Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas warned that major powers increasingly weaponize supply chain dependencies for political ends, echoing recent French aerospace industry worries over cross-border networks fraying under deglobalization pressures.

Despite headwinds, the Asia-Pacific region leads global aviation growth, with passenger traffic projected to rise 7.3 percent in 2026, driven largely by China and India. Onuma cautioned that current infrastructure, built for 4 billion passengers, cannot handle triple that volume without major upgrades. Leaders also flagged rare earth elements, vital for aircraft engines and dominated by Chinese supply, as a lingering pressure point even amid U.S.-China trade truces.