Ebola outbreak in DR Congo may exceed 1,000 cases, WHO warns

Tuesday 19 - 15:03

By: Dakir Madiha

Ebola outbreak in DR Congo may exceed 1,000 cases, WHO warns

An Ebola outbreak in the northeast of the Democratic Republic of the Congo may already be far larger than official figures suggest, with modelling studies indicating that total infections could exceed 1,000 cases. The assessment comes as health authorities continue to report more than 513 suspected cases and at least 131 deaths linked to the rare Bundibugyo strain of the virus.

The findings are based on epidemiological modelling published by infectious disease researchers at the Centre MRC for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London. The analysis points to substantial under-detection in the early stages of the outbreak, warning that the true scale of transmission remains uncertain. The outbreak was officially confirmed on 15 May after weeks of unrecognized spread in remote areas of the Ituri province.

Health officials say the first known case involved a healthcare worker in Bunia who developed symptoms on 24 April. However, confirmation of the outbreak took nearly three weeks, a delay that allowed the virus to circulate undetected. Authorities were first alerted on 5 May after a cluster of unexplained deaths with high fatality rates was reported in the Mongbwalu health zone. Laboratory confirmation only followed after genetic sequencing at a national biomedical research institute identified the Bundibugyo subtype.

WHO officials in the country have attributed the delayed detection to limited diagnostic capacity in local laboratories. Testing equipment was primarily calibrated for the more common Zaire strain of Ebola, leading to false negatives and slowing the initial response. Health experts describe the early phase of the outbreak as silent and fast moving, with transmission occurring before the scale of the crisis was understood.

Unlike the Zaire strain responsible for the 2014 to 2016 West Africa epidemic, there is currently no approved vaccine or treatment for the Bundibugyo strain. The World Health Organization declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on 17 May as cases spread beyond Ituri into South Kivu, Goma, and across the border into Uganda, where infections have been confirmed in Kampala.

Containment efforts now rely on isolation of patients, contact tracing, and border controls, as health agencies warn that the outbreak may already extend across multiple provinces and neighboring countries. Officials caution that the situation remains fluid, with transmission likely underestimated in both rural and urban zones.