Starmer's defence spending plan: a strategic shift or a risky gamble?

Thursday 27 February 2025 - 16:06

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has unveiled a significant increase in the UK’s defence budget, a move he justifies as essential in navigating what he describes as a "dangerous new era." To fund this, his government will reduce foreign aid spending, a decision that has sparked intense debate.

Under this plan, the UK will raise its defence expenditure to 2.5% of GDP by April 2027, up from the current 2.3%. Starmer has also set a long-term goal of reaching 3% of GDP after the next general election in 2029. He argues that bolstering military capabilities is crucial to national security, economic stability, and the UK’s strategic position within NATO.

This decision comes amid growing geopolitical concerns, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine and shifting US foreign policy. Notably, Starmer's announcement coincides with his visit to Washington, D.C., for a meeting with US President Donald Trump. The timing has led to speculation about whether the increase in defence spending is influenced by Trump’s calls for NATO allies to commit up to 5% of GDP to military investments.

The UK currently spends £53.9 billion ($68.3 billion) on defence annually. Starmer’s plan will inject an additional £13.4 billion ($17 billion) per year, financed by cutting foreign aid from 0.5% to 0.3% of national output. While Starmer insists this is a necessary trade-off, critics argue that reducing foreign aid undermines Britain’s humanitarian leadership. Former Foreign Secretary David Miliband has strongly condemned the cuts, warning they could weaken the UK's influence in global development.

The reaction to Starmer’s announcement has been mixed. Security analysts acknowledge the necessity of modernizing British defence capabilities, particularly as Starmer hints at a potential future military presence in Ukraine. However, some experts argue that 2.5% of GDP is still insufficient to prepare the UK for emerging global threats. Former Defence Minister Ben Wallace dismissed the plan as a "weak commitment," while others, including military analysts, suggest increasing spending to at least 3–5% of GDP.

Beyond defence, the cut to foreign aid raises concerns about its impact on vulnerable regions. The UK’s aid budget has traditionally supported critical health services and humanitarian relief in Africa, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific. Analysts warn that slashing these funds could lead to severe consequences, including the loss of lives in the world’s poorest nations and a weakening of the UK’s "soft power" on the global stage.

As Starmer navigates the complex balance between national security and international commitments, his defence spending strategy will be a defining test of his leadership and the UK’s role on the world stage.