World Bank warns Iran war could push 60 million into hunger

16:20

By: Dakir Madiha

World Bank warns Iran war could push 60 million into hunger

A potential escalation of conflict involving Iran could drive an additional 60 million people into acute food insecurity, according to World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill. The warning comes as global economic shocks from the conflict begin to ripple across energy, agriculture, and trade systems.

Gill said around 300 million people are already facing acute food insecurity, and that figure could rise by roughly 20 percent in a short period as cascading effects intensify. He pointed to disruptions in energy markets, particularly the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, as a key driver of rising costs across essential supply chains.

Fertilizer prices have surged due to their dependence on oil based inputs. Higher costs risk triggering export restrictions as governments attempt to secure domestic supplies. Gill warned that such policies could accelerate price increases and deepen shortages, particularly in fragile and conflict affected countries. He said the crisis is currently hitting parts of Asia hardest but is likely to spread rapidly to Africa if conditions persist.

The full impact on food supply has yet to materialize. Current food stocks were largely produced before the conflict began, meaning future harvests could reflect the worst effects of higher input costs and disrupted logistics. Low income populations are expected to bear the brunt, as they spend a larger share of income on food and fuel.

Ajay Banga said the World Bank is preparing a major financial response that could mobilize between 80 and 100 billion dollars over the next 15 months to support the most affected countries. The package would include crisis response funding, reallocated loans, and expanded financing if the conflict persists.

Global institutions are issuing similar warnings. The World Food Programme has estimated that tens of millions more people could face acute hunger if the conflict continues and oil prices remain elevated. A joint statement from the IMF, the World Bank, and the WFP warned that rising energy and fertilizer costs will inevitably drive food prices higher, with the heaviest burden falling on import dependent economies.

Gill also cautioned that global inflation could rise significantly under a prolonged conflict scenario, potentially reaching 4.7 percent this year. The outlook highlights the growing link between geopolitical instability and basic food security risks worldwide.