El Niño Event likely at 80% this summer, warns United Nations

Tuesday 02 June 2026 - 08:20

The United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that an El Niño event is highly likely to develop between June and August, with an estimated probability of 80%, raising concerns about an increase in extreme weather conditions worldwide.

According to the agency’s latest update, unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are creating favorable conditions for the formation of the phenomenon. El Niño is known for disrupting global weather patterns, often leading to shifts in temperature and rainfall across multiple continents.

The WMO also estimates a greater than 90% chance that the event could persist at least until November, with expectations that it may range from moderate to strong intensity. Officials warn that such conditions could intensify droughts in some regions while triggering heavy rainfall and flooding in others.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months. Its opposite phase, La Niña, brings cooler-than-average conditions and different global impacts.

The last El Niño event in 2023–2024 contributed to record-breaking global temperatures, making those years the hottest ever recorded. Scientists emphasize that the combination of natural climate variability and long-term global warming can amplify the severity of extreme weather events.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo urged governments and communities to prepare for potentially serious impacts, including heatwaves, droughts, and extreme rainfall. She stressed that early preparedness is essential to reduce risks to populations and ecosystems worldwide.