Stanford study links us emissions to $10 trillion global climate damage

Thursday 26 March 2026 - 08:50

By: Dakir Madiha

Stanford study links us emissions to $10 trillion global climate damage

A study from Stanford University finds that greenhouse gas emissions from the United States have caused more than 10 trillion dollars in global economic damage since 1990. The research, published in Nature, introduces a new method that connects emissions from countries, companies, and individuals to measurable economic losses worldwide.

The study, led by environmental scientist Marshall Burke, identifies the United States as the largest contributor to cumulative climate-related economic harm. China ranks second with an estimated 9 trillion dollars in damages. Around one quarter of the losses tied to US emissions affected the country itself, while developing economies faced significant impacts. India is estimated to have lost about 500 billion dollars, and Brazil about 330 billion dollars over the same period.

The methodology tracks how carbon dioxide emissions raise global temperatures and reduce economic growth. Higher temperatures affect labor productivity and public health, which slows GDP expansion. The study estimates that one tonne of CO2 emitted in 1990 caused about 180 dollars in global damage by 2020 and could generate an additional 1,840 dollars in losses by 2100. Emissions linked to Saudi Aramco alone were associated with roughly 3 trillion dollars in cumulative damage between 1988 and 2015.

Researchers also applied the model to individual behavior. A 10 percent reduction in car use over ten years could prevent about 6,000 dollars in future climate damage. At the high end, private jet emissions from figures such as Bill Gates, Elon Musk, and Taylor Swift in 2022 could each result in more than one million dollars in cumulative damage by 2100.

The findings come as legal actions expand worldwide to hold fossil fuel producers accountable for climate-related losses. The study does not address legal responsibility but provides estimates that could inform compensation debates.

The research also carries political implications. Policies under Donald Trump included withdrawing from international climate agreements and scaling back contributions to global climate funds while supporting fossil fuel expansion. Researchers say the findings highlight the scale of potential costs tied to such policy decisions.

Frances Moore of University of California Davis, who was not involved in the study, noted that monetary estimates may still understate the real impact on poorer countries, where economic losses translate into greater social harm.