K33 Research says Bitcoin’s $60,000 drop marked cycle bottom

13:16

By: Dakir Madiha

K33 Research says Bitcoin’s $60,000 drop marked cycle bottom

Bitcoin’s decline to around $60,000 in February likely marked the lowest point of the current market cycle, according to K33 Research, which argues that a collapse comparable to previous crypto winters has become structurally unlikely.

In a report released on May 20, K33 head of research Vetle Lunde said the current downturn differs sharply from earlier bear markets that erased more than 80% of Bitcoin’s value. The firm believes the growing influence of institutional capital and regulated investment products has changed how market corrections unfold.

Bitcoin has fallen roughly 6% since retesting its 200 day moving average near $82,000 earlier in May. Despite the recent weakness, K33 maintains that the broader market structure points toward consolidation rather than a deep capitulation event. Bitcoin traded near $77,400 on May 20 after failing to hold above the long-term technical level.

K33 based its outlook on several indicators that it says separate the 2026 downturn from previous cycles. Funding rates on perpetual Bitcoin futures remained negative for 81 consecutive days, the longest such stretch since the collapse that followed the FTX crisis in late 2022. Bitcoin also spent 189 days below its 200 day moving average after first breaking under the level in November 2025.

Lunde argued that persistent negative sentiment in derivatives markets reflects reduced speculative leverage rather than conditions for another major crash. He said the absence of excessive risk-taking limits the possibility of a liquidation cascade similar to earlier crypto market collapses.

The research firm expects Bitcoin to trade between $60,000 and $75,000 instead of entering a severe downward spiral. K33 had first identified the $60,000 range as a probable cycle floor during February’s selloff after observing capitulation signals in volatility levels, trading volumes and ETF flows.

The report noted that current market conditions resemble periods seen in September and November 2022, shortly before Bitcoin reached its final bottom in the previous cycle. However, K33 argues the present environment is less fragile because institutional investors now account for a larger share of market activity through spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds and other regulated products.

Options market skews remain near yearly highs, while ETF outflows continue to pressure sentiment. Still, K33 said widespread defensive positioning among traders reduces the risk of a sharp collapse because most market participants have already adjusted for downside scenarios.