NOAA raises El Niño odds as forecasters warn of extreme event

Friday 15 - 07:18

By: Dakir Madiha

NOAA raises El Niño odds as forecasters warn of extreme event

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has sharply increased the probability of an El Niño developing in 2026, signaling growing concern that the climate phenomenon could become one of the strongest recorded in modern history. The agency’s Climate Prediction Center now estimates an 82% chance that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July 2026, up significantly from the 61% probability issued in April. Forecasters also see a 96% likelihood that the event will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026 and 2027.

The updated assessment reflects a rapid shift in Pacific Ocean conditions after the dissipation of La Niña earlier this year. Although the tropical Pacific currently remains in a neutral ENSO state, scientists point to warming subsurface ocean temperatures and unusually strong westerly wind bursts across the western Pacific as key indicators that El Niño formation is becoming increasingly likely. Meteorologists say the speed of the transition has surprised many forecasting centers and strengthened confidence in the outlook.

Attention is now turning to the potential intensity of the event. Earlier projections suggested only a moderate possibility of a powerful El Niño, defined by sea surface temperature anomalies of at least 2 degrees Celsius in the Niño-3.4 monitoring region. Updated climate models now indicate a substantially stronger scenario. Several forecasting systems, including those operated by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, project temperature anomalies that could exceed 2.5 degrees Celsius by autumn, placing the event among the strongest El Niño episodes ever observed.

Scientists monitoring the Pacific say one of the main drivers behind the rapid intensification was a major burst of westerly winds in early April, described by forecasters as one of the most significant in decades. Such atmospheric changes can accelerate warming across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and amplify the strength of El Niño over the following months. Climate researchers are increasingly comparing the developing pattern with historic extreme events that reshaped global weather systems and contributed to worldwide temperature records.

The timing of the expected El Niño is especially important for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1. El Niño typically increases vertical wind shear over the Atlantic basin, creating less favorable conditions for tropical cyclone formation. That could reduce the number of hurricanes and named storms during the peak months of the season. However, forecasters caution that exceptionally warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures may offset some of the suppressing effects and still support dangerous storm activity.

Beyond hurricane activity, the climate pattern is expected to influence weather conditions across large parts of United States and other regions worldwide. Meteorologists anticipate above-normal temperatures across much of North America during summer and wetter conditions across the southern United States extending into winter. The World Meteorological Organization warned in April that a major El Niño event combined with already elevated global temperatures could push either 2026 or 2027 toward new worldwide heat records, intensifying pressure on agriculture, water resources and energy systems.