China warns of El Niño risk as fossil fuel pressures rise

Monday 20 April 2026 - 14:20

By: Dakir Madiha

China warns of El Niño risk as fossil fuel pressures rise

China’s national climate authorities have signaled the likely emergence of an El Niño event beginning in May 2026, with effects expected to persist through the end of the year. The forecast raises concerns about rising global temperatures and increased climate volatility, though experts caution against early claims of a “super El Niño,” noting that such terminology lacks formal scientific definition and requires far higher ocean temperature anomalies.

According to the China Meteorological Administration, sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific continue to rise, a key indicator of El Niño development. Scientists note that a “super” classification would require anomalies above 2.5 degrees Celsius, a threshold reached only once in modern records during the 2015 to 2016 event. While current projections point to a moderate to strong episode, uncertainty remains high due to diverging climate models.

Forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimate a 61 percent probability that El Niño will form between May and July and continue through the year. The agency also assigns a roughly 25 percent chance of a very strong event but emphasizes a wide range of possible outcomes, from neutral conditions to a powerful warming phase, depending on atmospheric dynamics in the Pacific. European forecasting models show more aggressive scenarios, with several projecting temperature levels that could approach extreme thresholds later in the year.

Meteorological agencies urge caution at this stage. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has indicated that below-average rainfall could affect parts of eastern and southwestern Australia in the coming months, consistent with early El Niño patterns. However, scientists highlight the “spring predictability barrier,” a known limitation in forecasting accuracy between March and May, which has historically led to false signals. Experts stress that reliable conclusions about the scale and timing of the phenomenon will only emerge later in the year.

The potential economic and environmental implications are significant. Chinese researchers warn that extreme weather linked to El Niño, including droughts and floods, could disrupt hydropower generation and force greater reliance on fossil fuels. This shift would increase carbon emissions and raise energy import costs, placing additional strain on economies. Similar risks apply in Australia, where rapid transitions from flooding to drought and wildfire conditions are possible.

Historical patterns suggest that the full warming impact of El Niño often unfolds with a delay. Past events have preceded record global temperatures in subsequent years, amplifying long-term climate trends. As monitoring continues, policymakers and industries are preparing for a scenario that could affect agriculture, energy markets, and global supply chains.