Morocco forecasts growth above 5.3% despite global energy pressures

Wednesday 13 - 07:54

By: Dakir Madiha

Morocco forecasts growth above 5.3% despite global energy pressures

Fouzi Lekjaa said Morocco’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience despite mounting international instability and rising energy prices, as the government projects economic growth above 5.3% in 2026. Speaking before the House of Councillors in Casablanca, the minister said the first four months of implementation of the 2026 Finance Law confirmed the stability of Morocco’s public finances and the strength of domestic economic activity.

Lekjaa pointed to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz as major drivers behind the latest surge in global energy prices. According to the minister, nearly 20% of global energy trade passes through the strategic maritime corridor, contributing to sharp increases in oil and gas prices since March. Average oil prices climbed to $102 per barrel and peaked at $119, compared with roughly $70 before the latest crisis. Diesel prices increased by nearly 70%, while butane gas rose by 33% and fuel oil used for electricity production jumped by 58%.

Despite higher import costs, the Moroccan government has continued subsidy measures aimed at protecting household purchasing power and limiting inflationary pressure. Lekjaa said the state currently allocates around MAD 600 million each month to stabilize butane gas prices, MAD 650 million to support transport costs and MAD 300 million monthly to maintain electricity prices unchanged. He also rejected claims that the government was significantly benefiting from additional fuel related tax revenue, stating that extra value added tax income linked to the crisis would not exceed MAD 3 billion even under the most favorable scenario.

Morocco’s foreign currency reserves reached MAD 469.8 billion by the end of April, marking a 23.4% increase compared with the same period last year. According to Lekjaa, the reserves now cover nearly six months of imports, reinforcing the country’s external financial stability at a time of global uncertainty. The minister also said recent rainfall and an expected cereal harvest of 90 million quintals should provide additional support to economic activity during the year.

Tax revenues continued to rise during the first four months of 2026. Lekjaa stated that total tax income increased by MAD 10.4 billion, or 8.5%, compared with the same period in 2025. Corporate tax revenues alone rose by MAD 9.1 billion, representing a 25% increase, while VAT revenues gained MAD 1.3 billion. Registration and stamp duties increased by MAD 1 billion and domestic consumption tax receipts rose by MAD 854 million, reflecting sustained internal demand despite international economic turbulence.

The government remains committed to reducing Morocco’s budget deficit to 3% of gross domestic product by the end of 2026 and lowering public debt to around 66% of GDP. Lekjaa said the country’s financial indicators helped Morocco preserve its investment grade rating from S&P Global, while Moody's upgraded the kingdom’s outlook from stable to positive. Morocco also renewed its flexible credit line agreement with the International Monetary Fund.

Lekjaa added that Morocco improved by four points in the 2025 Budget Transparency Index, describing the progress as evidence of stronger governance and increasing transparency in the management of public finances. The government views these indicators as critical to maintaining investor confidence while navigating a volatile international economic environment.