Morgan Stanley forecasts $570 billion AI debt surge in 2026

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By: Dakir Madiha

Morgan Stanley forecasts $570 billion AI debt surge in 2026

Global debt markets are undergoing a structural shift driven by the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure spending. Morgan Stanley estimates that global AI-related debt issuance will rise to nearly $570 billion in 2026, more than doubling from previous levels as major technology companies accelerate borrowing to fund data centers, chips, and cloud capacity.

By May 31, AI-linked debt issuance had already reached $236 billion, marking a fourfold increase compared with the same period a year earlier. Large technology firms including Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Oracle have collectively issued about $159 billion in bonds since the start of the year. This volume accounts for roughly 18 percent of total US corporate bond issuance in 2026, underscoring the scale of capital demand tied to AI infrastructure expansion.

The borrowing wave has expanded beyond the United States as companies tap global debt markets. Amazon recently executed a record Canadian dollar bond sale worth 14 billion Canadian dollars, surpassing a 8.5 billion Canadian dollar issuance by Alphabet earlier in the year. Across Europe and Asia, technology groups continue to diversify funding sources, reflecting the depth of global liquidity and the growing competition among financial centers to absorb large-scale corporate borrowing in a market estimated at 40 trillion dollars.

Investor caution is also rising as concerns build over overheating in credit markets. Fidelity has begun shifting its bond exposure away from new technology debt, citing reduced risk compensation for investors. Oracle’s aggressive funding strategy has drawn scrutiny after it raised 25 billion dollars in a single issuance as part of a broader 50 billion dollar financing plan, with parts of its debt trading at spreads closer to speculative-grade issuers despite its investment-grade rating. UBS has projected that total global tech and AI-related debt could reach 990 billion dollars in 2026 when mergers and acquisitions financing are included. Morgan Stanley also expects hyperscaler capital expenditure to exceed 1 trillion dollars by 2027, signaling continued pressure on debt markets.

CoreWeave, a recent entrant to public markets focused on AI infrastructure, is also expanding its presence in Europe by exploring new high-yield bond offerings in dollars and euros. The company has already raised 2 billion dollars in high-yield debt and is working with major financial institutions to support further expansion of GPU-driven data center capacity.