Macquarie warns oil could hit $200 if Iran war lasts to June
Macquarie Group analysts warn oil prices could reach a record $200 per barrel if the US-Iran war drags to June with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. The Australian investment bank sees a 40 percent chance of prolonged conflict versus 60 percent odds of ending by late March, per a Bloomberg-cited note.
Brent crude surged Thursday then eased slightly Friday in Asian trade after President Donald Trump delayed striking Iranian energy infrastructure to April 6, giving Tehran 10 days instead of seven. Brent jumped about 45 percent in March alone, with diesel and jet fuel costs rising faster.
The war that started February 28 poses the biggest threat to global energy security ever, the International Energy Agency says. Iran has nearly sealed the Strait of Hormuz, which carried one-fifth of world oil flows pre-war. IEA data shows crude and product flows through the strait now under 10 percent of prior levels.
Enverus analyst Carl Larry said markets grasp no clear end to fighting. He noted upside risks persist into the weekend.
Iran's Tasnim news agency said Thursday Tehran awaits a reply after rejecting a 15-point US peace plan and offering its terms, including recognition of control over the strait. Trump told his cabinet Iran allowed 10 tankers through as a goodwill gesture. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an insurance program to restart strait shipping soon.
Wall Street firms raised 2026 oil forecasts. Goldman Sachs lifted Brent averages to $85 from $77, expecting $110 peaks in March-April. J.P. Morgan sees $100 in Q2 then $80 year-end. Barclays upped to $85 from $65, warning $100 if Hormuz disruptions last four-to-six weeks. Morgan Stanley set 2027 Brent at $80 due to lasting geopolitical risk premiums.
Macquarie's Vikas Dwivedi told OilPrice.com Hormuz closure triggers a domino effect that could push crude to $150 or beyond. Wood Mackenzie and Rapidan Energy's Scott Modell agree $200 enters possibility if fighting lasts another month.
US gasoline averages $3.98 per gallon, up 34 percent since war start; diesel hit $5.35, up 42 percent, AAA reports. The US Energy Information Administration raised 2026 Brent forecasts to $78.84 from $57.69, citing short-term supply hits and Q2 averages near $91.
Macquarie cautions even the US faces slowdown risks, drawing parallels to the 1990-1991 Gulf War. It warns high oil prices could combine with financial strains to spark recession.
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