JPMorgan sees gold mining stocks slump as buying opportunity
JPMorgan Chase said the recent selloff in gold mining stocks presents a buying opportunity, arguing that the sector’s decline since the start of the US Iran conflict has created attractive entry points for investors.
The bank maintained its gold price target of $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, implying a gain of about 35% from current spot levels. It named AngloGold Ashanti and Fresnillo as its top picks, both rated overweight.
Gold prices have fallen about 20% from their January record near $5,600 per ounce, while mining stocks have declined more sharply. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF dropped nearly 29% in March, marking its worst monthly performance since the Lehman Brothers collapse. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index also fell to its lowest level since December, erasing its gains for 2026.
The downturn runs counter to the typical pattern where gold assets rise during geopolitical crises. JPMorgan said higher oil prices linked to the conflict have pushed up inflation expectations and bond yields, weakening the case for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve that had previously supported gold.
A stronger US dollar has added further pressure on the non yielding metal. In addition, some investors have sold gold positions to offset losses in other assets, contributing to the decline.
JPMorgan pointed to historical trends showing that gold mining stocks often rebound strongly in the months following a trough in gold prices during similar periods of geopolitical tension. The bank highlighted the strong cash flow profiles of AngloGold Ashanti and Fresnillo as key factors supporting their recovery potential.
The outlook for gold remains tied to structural demand. JPMorgan cited continued buying by central banks, estimated at around 800 tonnes in 2026, along with steady inflows into gold backed exchange traded funds.
The bank’s economists expect no interest rate cuts in 2026, with the next move likely to be a rate increase in 2027. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated as Donald Trump has set a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face further military action.
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