African energy producers gain ground as Iran war disrupts global supply

Monday 30 March 2026 - 17:40

By: Dakir Madiha

African energy producers gain ground as Iran war disrupts global supply

The war involving Iran has disrupted global energy markets, cutting about 8 million barrels of crude oil per day and a fifth of global liquefied natural gas supply. Far from the Strait of Hormuz, African energy producers are emerging as long-term beneficiaries of the shock.

Major producers including Nigeria, Libya, Angola, Mozambique, and Tanzania are increasingly viewed by European and Asian buyers as more stable alternatives to Middle Eastern suppliers. A report by Energy, Capital & Power said buyers are shifting toward African volumes due to lower insurance costs and more predictable delivery timelines compared with shipments passing through high-risk routes such as the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea.

The disruption has been severe. LNG tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz effectively halted in early March after Iranian forces declared the waterway closed, according to S&P Global. Qatar declared force majeure at its Ras Laffan facilities, and analysts at Kpler estimated Middle East LNG exports for March would fall to 2.3 million tonnes from an expected 8.1 million tonnes, a drop of about 70 percent. Brent crude has risen more than 50 percent since the conflict began in late February.

The crisis is accelerating long-delayed African energy projects. Algeria announced it will begin construction of the trans-Saharan gas pipeline through Niger after Ramadan. The project, led by state company Sonatrach, aims to transport Nigerian gas to Mediterranean export routes and is valued at 20 billion dollars. It had faced years of delay due to diplomatic tensions between Algiers and Niamey.

TotalEnergies restarted its 20 billion dollar LNG project in Mozambique in January after a five-year توقف caused by insurgency in Cabo Delgado. The first LNG shipment is expected in 2029. Spain and Algeria also reached a preliminary agreement to increase gas flows through the Medgaz pipeline by up to 10 percent, or about 1 billion cubic meters annually, according to Reuters.

Asian buyers are also diversifying supply. Vietnam’s Binh Son Refining is negotiating to source more crude from Africa, the United States, and Southeast Asia as part of a broader strategy. The company signed agreements with US partners in February, while Vietnam’s prime minister has urged refineries to reduce reliance on any single supplier.

Africa’s LNG export capacity is projected to grow from about 80 million tonnes per year to more than 175 million tonnes by 2040, driven by projects in Mozambique, Nigeria, Angola, and Cameroon. This expansion will depend on addressing persistent challenges including infrastructure gaps, regulatory uncertainty, and security risks that have long constrained the sector.