European gas prices rise as Iran ceasefire deadline nears

Friday 17 April 2026 - 12:40

By: Dakir Madiha

European gas prices rise as Iran ceasefire deadline nears

European natural gas prices moved higher on Thursday as markets weighed uncertainty around ongoing diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran, with a fragile ceasefire set to expire within days. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract climbed about 2 percent on April 16 to roughly 42.24 euros per megawatt hour, reflecting renewed concern over supply disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

Prices remain elevated compared with pre conflict levels, although they have retreated from the three year highs reached in March when tensions sharply disrupted regional energy flows. The latest increase comes as negotiations to end the war between the United States, Israel and Iran enter a critical phase, with no agreement reached after more than 20 hours of talks earlier this month. Officials are now considering a second round of discussions in Pakistan, while the current ceasefire, announced on April 7, is due to expire around April 21 or 22.

Despite the truce, Iran has continued to restrict access through the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping activity remains minimal. The corridor typically handles around 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, making it a central artery for global energy markets. Continued disruption has amplified volatility and reinforced concerns over the reliability of supply routes.

The impact extends beyond maritime traffic. Iranian missile strikes in March damaged infrastructure in Ras Laffan, Qatar’s main liquefied natural gas export hub, cutting national export capacity by an estimated 17 percent. Recovery timelines are expected to stretch from three to five years, following earlier production suspensions triggered by drone attacks. The loss of Qatari supply has reshaped global gas trade, intensifying competition for spot cargoes and shifting advantage toward Asian buyers.

Asian liquefied natural gas prices surged sharply during the peak of the crisis, rising to around 25 dollars per million British thermal units in early March before easing to near 20 dollars by mid April. This price dynamic has made it harder for European buyers to secure shipments, particularly as they compete with stronger demand in Asia.

Europe now faces a difficult storage refill season ahead of winter. Gas storage sites across the European Union were about 29 percent full in early April, significantly below last year’s level of 35 percent and under the five year seasonal average. The European Commission has warned that energy prices are likely to remain elevated for months regardless of the outcome of ceasefire negotiations.

Analysts caution that even if a peace agreement is reached, restoring gas flows from the Middle East will take time. Supply risks remain present, and reduced withdrawals from storage earlier in the year have not eliminated pressure on inventories. With the ceasefire deadline approaching, Europe’s gas market faces a prolonged period of tight supply, geopolitical uncertainty and sustained price volatility through the remainder of 2026.