Shifting tides: Morocco and South Africa explore fragile common ground

Last week marked a notable development in Morocco-South Africa relations as Jacob Zuma, the former president of South Africa, visited Rabat. Speaking in his capacity as the leader of the Umkhonto weSizwe Party, Zuma expressed support for Morocco’s autonomy plan to resolve the Sahara conflict. This statement has reignited debates over Pretoria’s position on the issue, which has historically been defined by antagonism toward Morocco’s territorial claims.

A historical pivot

Jacob Zuma’s remarks reflect a potential shift in South African diplomacy. This is not the first engagement between Zuma and Morocco; he met with His Majesty King Mohammed VI during the 2017 African Union-European Union Summit in Côte d’Ivoire. That meeting hinted at a thaw in the often-hostile relations, despite South Africa’s longstanding recognition of the so-called Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR).

During Zuma’s presidency (2009–2018), South Africa was one of Morocco’s fiercest critics on the Sahara issue. The government zealously promoted anti-Moroccan positions within the African Union and the United Nations. Yet, Zuma’s recent statement has triggered speculation about whether South Africa may be reconsidering its stance under growing geopolitical and economic pressures.

Diverging perspectives

Analysts are divided in their interpretation of Zuma’s visit. Some view it as a strategic move by South African political forces to prepare for a possible alignment with Morocco over the Sahara issue. Rising voices within South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) have called for a more pragmatic stance.

Others see Zuma’s remarks as merely symbolic, a diplomatic maneuver that does not represent an official policy shift. Critics argue that Pretoria’s entrenched alignment with Algeria and its vested interests in regional influence make a meaningful change unlikely in the near term.

Additionally, some skeptics interpret Zuma’s actions as opportunistic, aligning with his controversial reputation. However, others highlight the broader significance of diminishing unanimity in South Africa’s opposition to Morocco’s sovereignty claims.

South Africa’s waning influence

Observers note that South Africa’s influence in African geopolitics is fading. Once a moral authority inspired by Nelson Mandela’s legacy, Pretoria now faces diminishing clout on the continental stage. A resurfaced video of Mandela praising Morocco for its support of the ANC during apartheid underscores the historical ties that South Africa’s current leadership often overlooks.

During his presidency, Zuma backed initiatives that antagonized Morocco, such as appointing Joaquim Chissano as the African Union’s special envoy for the Sahara in 2014. South Africa also opposed Morocco’s re-entry into the African Union in 2017 and used its seat on the UN Security Council to amplify anti-Moroccan rhetoric.

However, Pretoria’s rigid ideological stance is increasingly at odds with Africa’s evolving priorities. Many African nations are prioritizing economic development and regional stability over outdated ideological battles.

Shifting regional dynamics

The geopolitical landscape is changing. Morocco has gained significant diplomatic support for its autonomy plan, with 118 UN member states and 24 of the 27 European Union countries endorsing the initiative. Meanwhile, Algeria, South Africa’s ally on the Sahara issue, is losing credibility internationally.

South Africa’s resistance to Morocco’s rising influence in Africa is further strained by Rabat’s leadership in initiatives such as Atlantic cooperation and Sahel stabilization efforts. Pretoria’s opposition to Morocco’s growing economic and political prominence may reflect fears of being overshadowed as a regional power.

Cracks in South Africa’s solidarity with Algeria

The ANC’s solidarity with Algeria and the Polisario Front is no longer as firm as it once was. Several Southern African Development Community (SADC) members, including Zambia, Malawi, and Eswatini, have withdrawn recognition of the SADR and established consulates in Morocco’s southern provinces.

South Africa’s continued support for the Polisario increasingly isolates it within African and international circles. Some analysts suggest that Pretoria may eventually adopt a more pragmatic approach, recognizing Morocco’s growing influence and the diminishing relevance of the SADR.

Looking ahead

While Jacob Zuma’s visit to Rabat may not signify an immediate policy shift, it highlights the cracks in South Africa’s rigid stance on the Sahara issue. As Morocco continues to gain diplomatic ground, Pretoria may find it increasingly difficult to justify its opposition.

The evolving geopolitical dynamics suggest that South Africa’s adherence to ideological positions rooted in the past may no longer serve its strategic interests. A potential recalibration of its approach could pave the way for a more constructive relationship with Morocco, benefiting both nations in an era of shared challenges and opportunities.