Russia enters “Phase 0” of NATO conflict preparation, analysts warn

Wednesday 08 October 2025 - 15:20

By: Dakir Madiha

Russia enters “Phase 0” of NATO conflict preparation, analysts warn

Russia has entered what analysts describe as “Phase 0” of preparations for a potential future conflict with NATO, intensifying hybrid attacks that include drone incursions, sabotage, and electronic warfare across Europe, according to a new assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Coordinated psychological warfare escalates

The ISW report highlights a surge in Russian disinformation efforts, led by the country’s foreign intelligence service, which has increasingly issued false claims of Western plots against Moscow. Recent fabrications include allegations that the United Kingdom is planning attacks against Russian warships using pro-Ukrainian operatives.

Analysts describe this as a “new pattern of coordinated activity” designed to instill fear among European populations and undermine NATO unity. “This organized scheme suggests that Russia has entered the initial stage, ‘Phase 0’, of preparing for a higher level of warfare, potentially against NATO,” the ISW stated.

Since autumn 2025, Moscow has sharply escalated hybrid operations targeting NATO states. Drone incursions into alliance airspace reached an unprecedented level in September, when Polish and Dutch fighter jets shot down several Russian drones over Poland. The incident marked the first direct engagement between NATO forces and Russian assets on allied territory since the start of the Ukraine invasion in 2022.

Drone disruptions spread across Europe

The expanding drone campaign has caused widespread disruptions in European aviation. Munich Airport was forced to close twice within 24 hours on October 2 and 3 after drones were spotted near both runways, grounding flights for more than 10,000 passengers. German authorities have since installed laser detection systems to monitor future intrusions.

Similar incidents occurred at Oslo’s Gardermoen Airport on October 6, when a Norwegian Air pilot reported multiple drones during approach, halting landings temporarily. Denmark and Belgium also reported drone activity near airports and military facilities.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he believes “Russia is behind most of these drone flights,” calling them reconnaissance tests by President Vladimir Putin against European allies. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed the accusations as “unfounded.”

NATO launches Eastern Sentry response

In response, NATO launched Operation Eastern Sentry on September 12, deploying fighter jets from Denmark, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom to reinforce the alliance’s eastern borders following the Poland incident. The mission builds on Operation Baltic Sentry, which protects undersea cable infrastructure.

While ISW notes that Russia shows no immediate intent for open warfare with NATO, these actions form part of Moscow’s “reflexive control” campaign—using psychological and hybrid tactics to manipulate adversaries and extract strategic concessions. The broader goal, analysts say, is to weaken European support for Ukraine and deter NATO defense initiatives by fostering fear of escalation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly downplayed Western concerns, describing them as “hysteria” aimed at justifying higher defense spending. Speaking humorously at a forum in Sochi, he remarked, “All right, I’ll stop sending drones to France, Denmark, and Copenhagen.”