Oil giants set to gain $234 billion windfall from war driven prices

17:00

By: Dakir Madiha

Oil giants set to gain $234 billion windfall from war driven prices

The world’s largest oil and gas companies, along with major producing states, are on track to generate an additional $234 billion in profits by the end of 2026 if crude prices remain around $100 per barrel. The projection, based on data from Rystad Energy, reflects how the conflict linked to Iran and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz have reshaped global energy flows and redirected revenues toward producers outside the Gulf.

State owned Saudi Aramco is expected to capture the largest share of gains, with an estimated $25.5 billion in additional profits. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation could follow with more than $12 billion. Among Western majors, ExxonMobil and Chevron are projected to add $11 billion and $9.2 billion respectively. Russian producers including Gazprom, Rosneft, and Lukoil could collectively secure nearly $24 billion.

Despite the surge in profits, operational challenges persist. ExxonMobil and Chevron have reported declines of around 6 percent in global production during the first quarter, as the conflict disrupted activities across the Gulf. Shell also recorded a drop in gas output. These disruptions highlight a more complex reality where higher prices are partially offset by constrained production.

Oil markets are also experiencing sharp price distortions outside the Gulf. Shipments of US crude to Europe have traded at record premiums, with some cargos priced more than $20 per barrel above benchmark levels. The shift reflects strong demand for supplies that avoid the Hormuz chokepoint and has accelerated investment decisions in alternative production regions.

New projects are already moving forward. Norwegian producer Vår Energi, backed by Eni, has advanced development plans for its Arctic Goliat field in partnership with Equinor. The project targets more than 100 million barrels of recoverable resources and is expected to extend production capacity for decades.

Shipping companies are among the biggest beneficiaries. Tanker rates have surged as vessels reroute around Africa instead of passing through the Gulf, sharply increasing transit times and costs. Some daily rates have more than doubled since the start of the conflict, boosting profits for operators such as Tsakos Energy Navigation and Frontline.

The disruption has also triggered a global shortage of liquefied natural gas after QatarEnergy declared force majeure on exports. This has opened opportunities for US exporters to capture additional market share. Analysts warn that if restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, oil prices could remain elevated through 2026, sustaining the profit surge even as diplomatic efforts continue.