Ivory Coast cocoa farmers cut fertilizer use raising supply fears

Wednesday 29 April 2026 - 13:19

By: Dakir Madiha

Ivory Coast cocoa farmers cut fertilizer use raising supply fears

Nearly three quarters of cocoa farmers in Ivory Coast have not purchased any fertilizer for the next two production cycles, according to a recent survey, raising concerns over future output in a country that produces about one third of the world’s cocoa. The findings point to growing strain across the sector as farmers scale back essential inputs.

The survey, conducted across key cocoa regions including Nawa, Agnéby-Tiassa, and Sud-Comoé, found that only 2 percent of respondents had secured all the fertilizer they needed. Around a quarter reported partial purchases, while 73 percent had bought none. The results highlight a sharp decline in input use that could directly affect yields in the coming seasons.

Farmers face a dual pressure of falling income and rising costs. Cocoa prices have dropped more than 70 percent from their peak in late 2024, and the farmgate price in Ivory Coast was cut by more than half in March to 1,200 CFA francs per kilogram for the mid-crop. At the same time, fertilizer supply has been disrupted by conflict affecting shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global fertilizer trade. Prices for fertilizers rose by about 30 percent in the weeks following the escalation.

Analysts warn that the impact on production is already taking shape. Forecasts indicate a 4.8 percent decline in Ivory Coast’s cocoa output by the end of the year, with risks intensifying if supply disruptions persist. Structural challenges are compounding the outlook. A rising spread of swollen shoot disease now affects 41 percent of farms, up from 33 percent two seasons earlier, threatening around 15 percent of national supply.

Weather conditions add further pressure. Below average rainfall in key growing areas has raised concerns about the quality and size of the ongoing mid-crop. Climate forecasts also point to a 61 percent probability of El Niño developing by mid-2026, with a significant chance of a strong event. Historical data shows that major El Niño episodes have consistently reduced global cocoa production, increasing the risk of a broader supply shortfall.