Global oil demand forecast lowered by IEA amid trade tensions
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025, citing "escalating trade tensions" linked to U.S. tariffs.
After a period of relative calm, global oil markets have been shaken by a wave of tariff announcements in early April, according to the IEA's monthly report.
Benchmark crude oil prices have plummeted to "their lowest levels in four years" due to heightened trade tensions and the prospect of increased supply from certain OPEC+ countries. Futures contracts for Brent crude fell by more than $15 per barrel, dipping below $60, but later rebounded to around $65 per barrel following the postponement of some tariff implementations.
In comparison to its March report, the IEA has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 730,000 bpd. The agency anticipates a further slowdown in 2026, with demand expected to rise by only 690,000 bpd, noting that significant risks remain regarding these projections due to rapid changes in the macroeconomic landscape.
This downward revision follows robust oil consumption in the first quarter of 2025, which saw an increase of 1.2 million bpd year-on-year—the highest growth rate since 2023.
On Monday, OPEC also reduced its demand growth forecast for 2025 to 1.3 million bpd, down from the previously expected 1.45 million bpd, attributing this adjustment to the impact of the recently announced U.S. tariffs.
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