Saudi Arabia Shifts Focus from US Defense Treaty to Modest Military Cooperation Amid Israel Stalemate

Friday 29 November 2024 - 16:32

Saudi Arabia has abandoned its pursuit of an ambitious U.S. defense treaty that would have linked its normalization of relations with Israel. Instead, Riyadh is now seeking a more limited military cooperation agreement with Washington, as diplomatic efforts evolve in the face of ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia had expressed interest in a broad mutual security agreement with the U.S., which would include the normalization of relations with Israel, contingent upon Israel’s commitment to a two-state solution for Palestine. However, due to rising public anger in Saudi Arabia and the broader Arab world in response to Israel's military actions in Gaza, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has shifted his stance. Recognition of Israel is now once again linked to concrete steps toward Palestinian statehood.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still eager to secure normalization with Saudi Arabia, seeing it as a historic milestone that would pave the way for broader acceptance across the Arab world. However, domestic political opposition in Israel, particularly after the October 7 Hamas attacks, complicates any concessions to Palestinians. Netanyahu faces significant political pressure, and a shift toward Palestinian statehood could fracture his coalition.

As both Saudi Arabia and Israel find themselves constrained by domestic political realities, attention now turns toward a more feasible security agreement that could be reached before U.S. President Joe Biden’s term ends. A full defense treaty between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia would require Senate approval, which is highly unlikely without Saudi recognition of Israel. The alternative being discussed involves expanded joint military exercises, increased military cooperation, and U.S. support in areas such as training, logistics, cyber security, and missile defense.

This scaled-back agreement would enable enhanced military cooperation between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. while addressing regional threats, particularly from Iran. It would also allow for U.S. defense firms to partner with their Saudi counterparts and facilitate the kingdom’s investment in advanced defense technologies. However, it would stop short of a formal defense treaty similar to those the U.S. has with Japan or South Korea, which obligate U.S. forces to defend the countries in the event of foreign attack.

The evolving negotiations come amid shifting political dynamics in the U.S., particularly with the looming possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Trump, who maintains strong ties with the Saudi crown prince, has previously supported plans that would bypass Palestinian statehood in favor of a more direct alignment with Israel. This scenario raises concerns among Palestinian and Arab officials, as well as within the Saudi leadership, about the future of Palestinian sovereignty in any peace agreement.

Despite these challenges, U.S. officials remain hopeful that an agreement on security guarantees could be achieved before Biden leaves office, but skepticism remains due to ongoing obstacles. There is uncertainty over whether Saudi Arabia would prefer to finalize a deal under Biden or wait for a potential shift in policy under a future Trump administration.

While Saudi Arabia continues to advocate for Palestinian statehood as a central condition for regional peace, the outcome of these negotiations could reshape the future of Middle Eastern diplomacy, particularly in relation to the evolving relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel.