Green hydrogen positions Morocco at the center of emerging energy geopolitics

Green hydrogen is rapidly emerging as one of the most strategic resources shaping the global economy in the coming decades. Beyond serving as a clean alternative to fossil fuels, it is becoming a key instrument in geopolitical competition and a factor redefining global energy markets.

In this shifting landscape, Morocco is increasingly viewed as one of Africa’s most promising candidates to play a central role in the production and export of green hydrogen. The country’s strategic location and strong renewable energy potential have positioned it as a serious contender in the future hydrogen economy.

According to a recent analysis by the German based H2Global Foundation, Morocco ranks among the best positioned African countries to develop a national green hydrogen industry, alongside Egypt, Namibia, and South Africa. The assessment reflects the growing importance of Morocco in the global transition toward clean energy, particularly as international energy dynamics evolve following the war in Ukraine and rising economic tensions among major powers.

Morocco’s position is supported by several structural advantages. The country has significant solar and wind energy potential and has invested heavily in renewable energy infrastructure in recent years. Large scale solar and wind projects have expanded Morocco’s capacity to generate clean electricity, a critical element for producing green hydrogen through electrolysis.

This momentum is reinforced by Morocco’s national strategy dedicated to green hydrogen, which aims to build a complete value chain covering production, processing, and export. Modern industrial and port infrastructure further strengthens the country’s position by facilitating energy exports to international markets, particularly Europe, which lies in close geographic proximity.

Morocco’s ambitions extend beyond exporting raw hydrogen. Authorities are seeking to integrate the resource into domestic industries, particularly sectors that require large volumes of clean energy. Fertilizer production is seen as a natural and stable outlet for green hydrogen, allowing the development of integrated industrial projects rather than relying solely on raw exports.

The OCP Group, Morocco’s state owned phosphate and fertilizer giant, plays a central role in this strategy. According to the H2Global Foundation, OCP plans to build an industrial ecosystem powered largely by renewable energy and green hydrogen as part of a broader investment program valued at about 13 billion dollars.

Among the flagship initiatives is a green ammonia production facility estimated to cost around 7 billion dollars. The project also includes the development of a renewable energy system with approximately 3.8 gigawatts of solar and wind capacity. The goal is to produce about three million tonnes of renewable ammonia annually by 2032.

The project has several strategic implications. It could reduce Morocco’s dependence on imported ammonia used in fertilizer manufacturing while strengthening the competitiveness of Moroccan exports as Europe introduces stricter climate regulations, including the carbon border adjustment mechanism.

For Morocco, green hydrogen is increasingly viewed as a tool to reinforce industrial sovereignty and economic resilience as global regulatory frameworks evolve.

Geography also plays a critical role in Morocco’s strategy. Its proximity to Europe provides a logistical advantage for exporting green hydrogen and its derivatives. Under the European Union’s REPowerEU plan launched after the war in Ukraine, the bloc aims to import ten million tonnes of renewable hydrogen annually by 2030, creating major opportunities for North African producers.

European initiatives designed to stimulate this emerging market may further support Moroccan projects. One example is the double auction system promoted by the H2Global Foundation with backing from Germany and the Netherlands, which offers long term purchase contracts that could stabilize demand for hydrogen produced in countries such as Morocco.

However, the path forward is not without challenges. Competition is intensifying as new players enter the green hydrogen sector, particularly in the Middle East where Gulf states are investing heavily in large scale projects.

At the same time, relations between Morocco and Gulf countries involve both competition and cooperation. Energy firms from the region have already partnered with Moroccan stakeholders on joint projects. Saudi company Acwa Power, for instance, has been selected to develop a renewable hydrogen project in Morocco with ambitions linked to producing green steel for export.

The rise of Asian producers could also reshape the market. China is already one of the world’s largest manufacturers of low cost electrolysis technology, while India has achieved highly competitive production costs for green ammonia through auction based mechanisms.

Experts from the H2Global Foundation warn that China and India could eventually become major exporters of hydrogen and hydrogen derived products to global markets, including Europe. In this context, Morocco will need to accelerate project implementation to move quickly from potential to large scale production and export capacity.

The report also stresses that African countries should avoid repeating an economic model based solely on exporting raw resources without developing local value chains. Morocco has an advantage in this regard because it is capable of integrating hydrogen production with industries such as ammonia, fertilizers, and potentially green steel.

Developing this integrated industrial ecosystem could strengthen the resilience of Morocco’s economy, create high value industrial jobs, and improve the country’s energy and trade balance.

Yet the report cautions that Africa’s window of opportunity in the global hydrogen market remains limited. The continent has so far attracted only about 13 million dollars out of roughly 8 billion dollars in global clean hydrogen investment, and just five African projects have reached the final investment decision stage.

In this context, Morocco stands out as one of the few African countries with concrete projects and a clearly defined strategy. The success of these initiatives will depend on securing long term purchase agreements, mobilizing international financing, and building advanced technological partnerships.

Morocco now appears to be at a pivotal moment in its energy and industrial development. The rise of green hydrogen could allow the country to shift from being an energy importer to becoming an influential player in global clean energy markets, particularly in its strategic relationship with Europe.