Morocco’s energy transition: Why water stress could reshape renewable power

Morocco’s push toward renewable energy appears relatively resilient to changes in freshwater withdrawals over the long term, but a new academic study suggests that water constraints can have a much stronger influence over shorter periods.

Published in 2026 in the Future Business Journal, the study by Mohamed Naouri and Aicha El Alaoui of Sultan Moulay Slimane University in Béni Mellal examines the relationship between freshwater withdrawals and the share of renewable sources in Morocco’s electricity generation between 1990 and 2021.

The research also takes into account economic growth, agricultural activity and industrial development. Its findings point to a complex interaction between water availability and the country’s energy transition rather than a simple direct link.

Long-term renewable growth shows limited sensitivity to water withdrawals

According to the study, changes in freshwater withdrawals do not have a statistically significant long-term effect on the share of renewable electricity in Morocco.

The researchers reached this conclusion using several econometric approaches, with the results indicating that both increases and decreases in water withdrawals fail to establish a persistent long-term relationship with the development of renewable electricity.

The finding does not mean that water is irrelevant to Morocco’s energy strategy. Instead, the structure of the country’s renewable electricity sector may help explain the relative resilience observed in the data.

Solar photovoltaic and wind technologies, which have expanded significantly in Morocco, generally require less operational water than hydropower, certain concentrated solar power technologies and some forms of bioenergy.

Long-term public policies, investment programmes and technological choices may also have reduced the dependence of renewable electricity development on broader changes in water withdrawals.

Water reductions have a stronger short-term effect

The picture becomes different when the researchers examine short-term dynamics.

Their model identifies a significant asymmetry between increases and decreases in freshwater withdrawals. A reduction in withdrawals is associated with a substantially stronger change in the renewable electricity share than an increase in withdrawals.

The estimated coefficient for negative changes is -5.28, compared with +1.04 for positive changes. These figures should not, however, be interpreted as direct forecasts of a 5.28-point fall in renewable electricity production. They are coefficients generated by the econometric model and reflect the relationship identified within the study's analytical framework.

The causality analysis also points to a predictive relationship running from reductions in water withdrawals toward changes in renewable electricity, rather than the reverse.

This suggests that periods of water-related constraint may create greater short-term pressure on the energy system than periods of increased water use.

Water withdrawals are not the same as water scarcity

The researchers emphasize an important limitation in interpreting their findings.

Freshwater withdrawals are not a direct measure of water scarcity or hydrological stress. A decline in withdrawals can occur because of drought, but it can also result from government restrictions, improved efficiency, changes in agricultural practices or structural shifts in water-consuming activities.

The study therefore examines changes in water use rather than measuring the physical availability or scarcity of water itself.

This distinction is particularly important for Morocco, where drought conditions, agricultural demand and water-management policies can simultaneously influence withdrawal levels.

Solar and wind offer a lower-water pathway

The study's findings support continued attention to renewable technologies that place relatively limited pressure on water resources.

Solar photovoltaic and wind power are particularly relevant in this context. Their expansion could allow Morocco to increase renewable electricity generation while limiting the additional water requirements associated with some other energy technologies.

The researchers also point to broader water-efficiency measures, including more efficient irrigation, reductions in losses across water networks and greater reuse of treated wastewater.

Another strategic area is the relationship between desalination and renewable electricity. As Morocco expands desalination capacity to address growing water pressures, linking these facilities more closely with renewable energy could help manage the energy requirements associated with water production.

Industry remains an area for further renewable integration

The study also examines the relationship between economic sectors and renewable electricity.

While GDP and agricultural activity are considered in the analysis, industrial development does not show a statistically significant long-term relationship with the share of renewable electricity.

For the researchers, this may indicate an opportunity to strengthen the use of clean energy within industrial processes.

The industrial sector could therefore become an important part of Morocco’s broader effort to combine decarbonization, energy security and more efficient management of natural resources.

A study that calls for integrated water and energy planning

The research comes with several limitations that should be considered when interpreting its conclusions.

The analysis covers only 32 annual observations, from 1990 to 2021. In addition, renewable electricity's share of total electricity generation is used as the main indicator of the energy transition, meaning that other energy uses are not fully captured.

The principal water variable also does not directly measure water scarcity, hydrological stress or climate vulnerability.

The study consequently does not establish a simple causal equation between drought and renewable energy development. Instead, it highlights a more nuanced pattern: Morocco's renewable electricity expansion appears relatively independent of broad changes in freshwater withdrawals over the long term, while short-term reductions in water use can coincide with stronger adjustments in the renewable electricity share.

For Morocco, the findings underline the importance of treating water and energy as interconnected components of long-term planning. As the country expands solar and wind capacity while confronting increasing pressure on its water resources, the coordination of both policies could become increasingly important to maintaining the pace of the energy transition.