Brent oil tops 115 dollars as UAE exit reshapes supply outlook

Wednesday 29 April 2026 - 16:20

By: Dakir Madiha

Brent oil tops 115 dollars as UAE exit reshapes supply outlook

Oil prices surged to multi-month highs as Brent crude crossed the 115 dollar mark, driven by a sharp shift in global supply expectations following the United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave the OPEC alliance and rising tensions between the United States and Iran over maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz. Traders reacted to the combined shock by increasing hedging activity across energy markets.

Brent crude for June delivery climbed 3.5 percent to 115.13 dollars per barrel in European trading, extending a multi-session rally. West Texas Intermediate also rose 3.7 percent to 103.69 dollars. The upward movement has pushed oil prices nearly 50 percent higher since late February, when military escalation involving the United States and Israel and Iran began to intensify pressure on regional supply routes.

The announcement that the United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC and its broader alliance from May marks one of the most significant structural changes in the oil cartel in decades. The country, a major Gulf producer, has indicated plans to expand output capacity once freed from production quotas. The move reduces the group’s spare capacity buffer at a time when global supply stability is already under strain.

Market participants are also focused on the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping restrictions and countermeasures linked to the conflict involving Iran have tightened global oil flows. The disruption has increased fears of prolonged supply constraints. Analysts tracking global energy markets have raised short-term price forecasts, with some scenarios projecting Brent above 130 dollars if disruptions persist into the second and third quarters.

In the United States, higher crude prices have already translated into increased fuel costs for consumers, with gasoline reaching its highest level in four years. Inventory data also points to repeated declines in crude stockpiles, reinforcing concerns about tightening supply conditions. The combination of geopolitical risk and structural supply shifts continues to drive volatility across global energy markets.