EU urged to strengthen resilience against increasingly complex crises by 2040

Yesterday 21:13

By: Azzat Manal

EU urged to strengthen resilience against increasingly complex crises by 2040

The European Union will need to significantly strengthen its ability to prepare for and manage crises by 2040 as climate change, security threats and infrastructure vulnerabilities increasingly interact, according to a new foresight study by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC).

The study, developed with support from the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs, warns that future emergencies may no longer occur as isolated events. Instead, several disruptions could emerge at the same time, amplify one another and place existing prevention and disaster-management systems under considerable pressure.

The report identifies 12 capabilities that could become particularly important for European preparedness over the coming years. These include early warning and detection, cyber resilience, cooperation between member states, continuity of essential services and stronger participation by citizens in emergency preparedness and response.

Maintaining essential services is identified as a particularly critical requirement for 2040. The ability to keep key public functions operating during major disruptions will be essential to protecting communities and limiting the wider economic and social consequences of crises.

The JRC also stresses the importance of shifting from a predominantly reactive approach toward greater anticipation and prevention. European resilience policies, according to the study, should place greater emphasis on identifying emerging threats, reducing vulnerabilities and preparing institutions and communities before emergencies occur.

Rather than designing preparedness systems around individual risk scenarios, the study advocates a capability-based approach. This would allow resources and expertise to be deployed across different types of emergencies, including situations in which multiple threats occur simultaneously.

A common framework and terminology for civil protection capabilities could also improve cooperation between EU member states. Shared definitions would make it easier to coordinate planning, compare requirements and align investments in equipment, infrastructure and response systems.

Technology is another major element of the JRC’s assessment. The study highlights 12 emerging technologies that could influence European crisis-management capabilities, including advanced detection systems, artificial intelligence-powered autonomous tools, three-dimensional mapping and positioning technologies, and digital twins capable of replicating physical environments.

Such technologies could improve situational awareness, help authorities identify threats at an earlier stage and allow emergency planners to test different scenarios before they happen. Digital twins, for example, could help simulate how infrastructure and urban areas might respond to floods, fires or other large-scale disruptions.

However, the JRC cautions that technological innovation alone will not guarantee greater resilience. New systems must be reliable, interoperable and adapted to the operational realities faced by emergency services. Technologies that cannot communicate effectively with existing systems may offer limited practical value regardless of their technical sophistication.

The report also highlights the importance of considering potential risks associated with emerging technologies, particularly those with dual-use applications. Artificial intelligence is among the areas requiring careful consideration as European authorities assess how new tools could be incorporated into future security and civil-protection systems.

The study therefore calls for closer coordination between research, innovation and operational requirements. European investment decisions should not be based solely on the technological maturity of a particular solution, but also on its ability to strengthen concrete resilience capabilities.

By 2040, the EU could face crises that are more interconnected, simultaneous and rapidly evolving than many of the emergencies experienced today. Building resilience will consequently depend on coordinated capabilities, strong cooperation between member states, resilient essential services and technologies that can be effectively integrated into existing emergency-response structures.