El Niño and Hormuz crisis threaten global food security

Wednesday 10 June 2026 - 10:52

By: Dakir Madiha

El Niño and Hormuz crisis threaten global food security

The convergence of a developing El Niño event and prolonged instability around the Strait of Hormuz is placing global food systems under mounting pressure. International assessments warn that climate-driven shocks and geopolitical disruptions are interacting in ways that amplify risks to food supply chains, agricultural output, and household food affordability across multiple regions.

Meteorological projections indicate an 80 percent probability of El Niño conditions emerging between June and August 2026, with expectations that the event could persist into early 2027. Forecast models suggest a moderate to strong intensity, increasing the likelihood of widespread droughts, heatwaves, and irregular rainfall patterns. Such conditions typically reduce yields of staple crops, including rice, which remains a primary source of calories for much of Asia. Agricultural planners in several producing countries have already reported reduced planting intentions due to higher input costs and climate uncertainty.

At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz has experienced sustained disruption linked to ongoing conflict that has lasted more than one hundred days. Maritime traffic through the strategic corridor remains far below normal levels, with estimates placing flows at roughly 15 percent of pre-conflict volumes. The route is critical for global oil and gas transport, and any sustained restriction increases energy prices, which in turn raises the cost of fertilizers, irrigation, and food distribution networks. Some officials have indicated that maritime flows are beginning to recover gradually as ceasefire efforts progress, though uncertainty remains elevated.

Economic monitoring shows early signs of stress in global food markets. The global price environment for agricultural commodities has remained mixed, but sugar markets have recorded notable increases, with benchmark indices reaching their highest level in several months due to supply concerns in Brazil and expected climate impacts in India and Thailand. Broader food price indicators remain stable, yet underlying volatility persists, reflecting the combined pressure of climate variability and energy-driven production costs.

Humanitarian and policy assessments emphasize that the overlap of climate and conflict risks is creating systemic vulnerabilities. Regions such as Latin America and the Caribbean face heightened exposure to food insecurity due to simultaneous supply disruptions and climate-related agricultural stress. Analysts and policy experts argue that these overlapping shocks should be treated as predictable structural risks rather than isolated events, calling for coordinated strategies to strengthen resilience in global food and energy systems.