UAE exit from OPEC raises risk of further departures

08:22

By: Dakir Madiha

UAE exit from OPEC raises risk of further departures

The United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC has intensified scrutiny of the oil cartel’s cohesion, as analysts warn that tensions over production quotas could push other members to follow. The move highlights long-standing divisions within the group, particularly between countries investing in higher output capacity and those seeking to limit supply to support prices.

The UAE’s exit follows a period of geopolitical strain that disrupted its oil exports, including attacks affecting regional energy routes. At the same time, the country has faced limits imposed by OPEC quotas despite having significantly higher production capacity. Data shows the UAE produced about 2.37 million barrels per day in March, well below its estimated sustainable capacity of 4.3 million barrels per day, reinforcing frustration over constrained output.

The development reflects a broader pattern within OPEC, where several countries have already withdrawn in recent years. Qatar left in 2019, followed by Angola in 2024, while Ecuador also exited earlier, each citing shifting national priorities or dissatisfaction with quota systems. Analysts note that uneven compliance has been a persistent issue, with some members exceeding agreed limits, weakening trust within the alliance.

Market observers identify several potential candidates that could reconsider their membership. Kazakhstan has consistently produced above its quota, making it a likely contender for exit. Nigeria is also under scrutiny as it expands domestic refining capacity, particularly through the Dangote refinery, reducing reliance on crude exports and altering its incentives within the cartel. Venezuela has emerged as another possibility, as its production and exports recover and its political environment shows signs of change that could favor greater flexibility.

OPEC+ continues to enforce production cuts of roughly 2 million barrels per day through 2026, while gradually easing some voluntary reductions. Major producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have begun returning limited volumes to the market. However, exemptions granted to countries facing sanctions or conflict, such as Iran, Libya and Venezuela, have added complexity to quota enforcement and contributed to internal strain.

Analysts warn that further fragmentation could increase oil price volatility. Reduced discipline among producers may weaken the group’s ability to stabilize markets, leading to sharper fluctuations in supply and pricing. At the same time, some experts argue that OPEC’s core role remains intact, pointing to its ability to manage supply during previous crises, including the Covid-19 pandemic. The group’s future influence will depend on whether it can maintain coordination as member interests continue to diverge.