OPEC+ meets amid tensions after UAE exit shakes oil alliance

Sunday 03 May 2026 - 10:00

The OPEC+ alliance, which brings together major oil-producing countries, has held its first major meeting following the departure of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a development that has raised questions about the group’s cohesion and future influence on global energy markets.

The meeting included key producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, alongside Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. Together, these countries are expected to adjust their production quotas slightly upward, by around 188,000 barrels per day, according to energy analysts.

The decision comes at a time when the alliance is facing internal pressure following the UAE’s exit, which has been described by experts as a significant shift in the structure of the group. The UAE had been one of the most flexible producers within OPEC+, with substantial unused production capacity that helped stabilize global supply.

Despite the announced increase in quotas, actual production gains may remain limited. Several member countries are already producing below their allocated limits due to technical constraints, infrastructure challenges, and geopolitical disruptions affecting key export routes.

Russia, one of the largest producers within the group, continues to face difficulties linked to international sanctions and infrastructure strains following its involvement in the conflict in Ukraine. These factors have restricted its ability to fully meet production targets, despite benefiting from relatively high global energy prices.

Energy analysts note that the withdrawal of the UAE weakens the alliance’s ability to manage spare capacity, a critical tool used to balance global oil prices during periods of instability. The UAE had previously invested heavily in expanding its production capabilities and was expected to reach significantly higher output levels in the coming years.

The broader concern among experts is that further fragmentation within OPEC+ could reduce its ability to coordinate supply policies effectively. Countries such as Iraq and Kazakhstan have occasionally exceeded their quotas, adding to internal tensions within the group.

As global energy markets continue to adjust to geopolitical uncertainty and shifting supply dynamics, the future effectiveness of OPEC+ will depend on its ability to maintain coordination among remaining members and manage production levels collectively.