Morocco phosphate sector remains stable as global fertilizer costs rise

Yesterday 07:50

By: Dakir Madiha

Morocco phosphate sector remains stable as global fertilizer costs rise

Morocco’s phosphate industry is expected to remain stable despite mounting pressure across global fertilizer markets, as geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains and push up production costs for key inputs.

Fitch Ratings said rising tensions in the Middle East, including disruptions linked to the United States, Israel, and Iran conflict, are affecting energy markets and increasing uncertainty across fertilizer supply. A major concern is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments, which has been shut for two weeks since the conflict began.

The disruption has had the strongest impact on nitrogen-based fertilizers, which rely heavily on natural gas. Fitch now expects ammonia prices to reach about $375 per ton in 2026, up from a previous estimate of $300. Urea prices are also projected to rise to around $420 per ton, compared with an earlier forecast of $340.

Higher energy costs are driving these increases, as nitrogen fertilizer production depends on gas-intensive processes. This trend is placing additional pressure on global agricultural supply chains.

In contrast, phosphate fertilizers show greater resilience. Fitch forecasts phosphate rock prices to remain stable at about $150 per ton in 2026 under Morocco export terms. Morocco, along with Jordan and Syria, benefits from export routes linked to the Mediterranean and Red Sea, reducing exposure to disruptions in the Gulf region.

However, some phosphate-based products are still affected. Diammonium phosphate prices are expected to reach about $650 per ton, supported by a global sulfur shortage and export restrictions from China.

Potash prices are also projected to rise moderately, with estimates increasing from $260 to around $280 per ton in 2026.

Despite current market pressure, Fitch expects fertilizer prices to ease between 2027 and 2028 as supply conditions improve. In the near term, Morocco’s stable phosphate output may strengthen its position in global markets, as buyers seek alternatives less exposed to energy volatility.