Hormuz disruption puts global fertilizer supplies under growing pressure

11:15

By: Azzat Manal

Hormuz disruption puts global fertilizer supplies under growing pressure

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are increasingly affecting markets beyond oil and gas, with fertilizer supplies emerging as another major concern for the global economy. The disruption has reduced the movement of fertilizer cargoes through one of the world’s most important maritime corridors and raised concerns about higher agricultural costs and possible pressure on food production.

Oleg Kobyakov, head of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations’ liaison office in Russia, said the disruption was contributing to a global fertilizer shortage and worsening conditions in fertilizer and energy markets. He warned that the consequences could extend beyond current prices if interruptions continue to affect agricultural supply chains.

Fertilizer is particularly sensitive to shipping disruptions because large quantities of products such as urea and ammonia are produced in the Gulf region and transported to international markets. Industry data indicates that the Strait of Hormuz normally handles a significant share of global fertilizer trade, making prolonged disruption a potential source of supply constraints and higher prices.

The latest shipping data illustrates the scale of the disruption. Commercial vessel traffic through Hormuz has fallen dramatically compared with levels recorded before the conflict. Reuters reported that only four commodity vessels crossed the waterway on Monday, while preliminary tracking data showed traffic remained far below the recent 10-day average.

The decline is significant because the strait is a major gateway for international energy supplies. Before the conflict that began on February 28, around 125 large commercial vessels typically passed through Hormuz each day, while the route carried roughly one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

Fertilizer shipments have been particularly affected. Recent trade-tracking data indicated that fertilizer flows through the strait remained close to zero in early September, with outbound fertilizer and LNG movements from the Persian Gulf failing to recover significantly after their earlier decline. Middle Eastern producers are therefore facing difficulties moving some cargoes to international buyers.

The consequences could reach the agricultural sector with a delay. Kobyakov has warned that disruptions lasting several weeks could cause farmers to miss critical fertilizer application periods. Because agricultural production follows seasonal cycles, delayed deliveries cannot always be easily compensated for later, potentially reducing yields during subsequent growing seasons.

The pressure on fertilizer markets is also linked to higher energy costs. Fertilizer production, particularly nitrogen fertilizer, requires substantial amounts of energy, meaning higher prices for natural gas and other fuels can raise manufacturing costs even when production facilities themselves remain operational. Disruptions to transportation can add another layer of expense through longer routes, higher freight costs and increased insurance premiums.

The effects could therefore extend from fertilizer producers and traders to farmers and consumers. Higher fertilizer prices can increase the cost of agricultural production, while prolonged shortages may contribute to higher prices for grains and other food commodities. The FAO has warned that continued disruptions could affect global food production and supplies during the second half of 2026 and into 2027, particularly in countries already vulnerable to food insecurity.

The wider regional crisis has also raised concerns over the security of alternative maritime routes. Shipping activity through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has remained more stable than at Hormuz, although traffic has also fluctuated as tensions spread across the region. Reuters reported 24 and 27 commodity-vessel crossings through Bab el-Mandeb over one recent weekend, close to its 10-day average.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance has separately warned that continued attacks on commercial shipping could contribute to a broader energy crisis. Speaking in September, he said the United States was seeking to maintain commercial shipping and prevent disruptions from producing a wider shock to global energy markets. His comments reflect Washington’s position on the conflict and its efforts to justify continued action around the waterway.

For global agriculture, however, the consequences are not limited to energy prices. The fertilizer issue demonstrates how disruption at a single strategic maritime chokepoint can spread through several interconnected supply chains. Restrictions on the movement of fertilizer, fuel and other essential commodities can increase transportation costs and create difficulties for countries that depend heavily on imports.

As uncertainty surrounding shipping through Hormuz continues, fertilizer markets are likely to remain closely watched by governments, agricultural producers and commodity traders. A prolonged disruption could put additional pressure on farm costs and food supplies, particularly if fertilizer deliveries remain delayed during critical planting and application periods.

The developments underscore the broader economic importance of maritime stability in the Gulf. While Hormuz is best known for its role in global oil and gas trade, the current disruption shows that its importance extends to agricultural inputs and food security as well. Any sustained recovery in shipping activity could therefore have implications far beyond the energy sector.