El Niño threatens to deepen South Sudan’s worsening hunger crisis

Wednesday 16 September 2026 - 15:10

By: Azzat Manal

El Niño threatens to deepen South Sudan’s worsening hunger crisis

The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that South Sudan’s already severe hunger crisis is entering an even more dangerous phase as conflict, displacement, economic hardship, climate shocks and shrinking humanitarian funding converge. The UN agency says the strengthening El Niño weather pattern is adding pressure to vulnerable communities at a time when humanitarian resources are rapidly declining.

According to the WFP, around 7.8 million people, representing more than half of South Sudan’s population, are currently facing high levels of acute food insecurity. The crisis is particularly severe among children and mothers, with about 2.2 million children and 1.2 million pregnant and breastfeeding women requiring urgent nutrition support.

Matthew Hollingworth, the WFP’s Assistant Executive Director for Programme Operations, said after a recent visit to the country that several crises were reinforcing one another. Conflict and displacement are disrupting livelihoods, while economic difficulties and climate-related shocks are reducing people’s ability to secure sufficient food.

The humanitarian situation is also being affected by developments in neighbouring Sudan. Since the outbreak of war there, large numbers of refugees and returnees have crossed into South Sudan, placing additional pressure on communities and an already overstretched humanitarian system. The WFP says thousands of people continue to arrive seeking food, water and shelter.

Climate conditions are adding another layer of uncertainty. WFP analysis indicates that the current El Niño is strengthening and could become one of the most powerful such events on record. The phenomenon is expected to reach its peak between September and December 2026, with its effects potentially continuing into 2027 because of the impact on agricultural cycles.

In South Sudan, below-average rainfall and unusually high temperatures have already affected agricultural areas, particularly in parts of Eastern Equatoria. The WFP has reported drought-related damage to crops and warned that reduced harvests could further undermine food availability and household incomes.

The consequences of El Niño are not expected to remain confined to South Sudan. The wider pattern can alter rainfall and temperature conditions across large parts of eastern and southern Africa, increasing the risk of drought in some areas while bringing heavy rainfall and flooding to others. Such disruptions can affect agricultural production, livestock, markets and humanitarian access across borders.

South Sudan entered the current crisis with major structural vulnerabilities. Conflict has displaced communities and disrupted farming, while damaged infrastructure and difficult road conditions make it harder for humanitarian organisations to deliver assistance. Food prices and limited household purchasing power are also restricting access to basic supplies. Earlier this year, FAO, WFP and UNICEF warned that 7.8 million people could face acute food insecurity between April and July, while several areas were identified as being at risk of famine under worsening conditions.

Funding shortages are now becoming an additional threat. The WFP warned that more than one million vulnerable people could lose access to life-saving food and nutrition assistance by October if additional resources are not secured. The agency has repeatedly called for greater humanitarian funding and safe access to communities affected by conflict and displacement.

The organisation has also been testing anticipatory measures designed to provide assistance before climate shocks become full-scale humanitarian emergencies. In South Sudan, the WFP has used early-warning information to provide cash assistance and launched the country’s first drought anticipatory action plan in 2026, targeting vulnerable communities before the most severe effects of drought are expected.

The broader concern is that climate shocks are arriving while food systems are already under severe pressure. WFP estimates indicate that El Niño could significantly increase acute hunger in vulnerable countries, making early intervention increasingly important for protecting food supplies, livelihoods and access to essential services.

For South Sudan, the combination of conflict, displacement, economic instability, reduced aid and worsening climate conditions presents a particularly difficult challenge. Humanitarian agencies say timely financing and early action could help prevent climate-related shocks from pushing already vulnerable households into even more severe food insecurity.