European powers link Ukraine peace to firm security guarantees

12:20

By: Dakir Madiha

European powers link Ukraine peace to firm security guarantees

Defence ministers from five of Europe’s leading military powers have warned that any eventual peace agreement in Ukraine must be underpinned by binding security commitments, insisting that a simple halt in fighting would leave the country exposed to renewed Russian attack. Meeting in Krakow on 20 February, the E5 group of Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Poland, joined by EU High Representative Kaja Kallas and NATO Deputy Secretary General Radmila Šekerinska, said Ukraine’s long‑term safety had to be built into the architecture of any settlement that emerges from ongoing diplomacy. In a joint statement, the ministers stressed that Ukraine’s own armed forces would form the core of those guarantees, describing a well‑equipped, combat‑ready Ukrainian army as the first line of deterrence in any post‑war order.

French Defence Minister Catherine Vautrin argued that European security now hinged on securing a durable peace grounded in respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, warning that a ceasefire which simply froze front lines without wider guarantees could serve as a staging ground for future Russian offensives. Her German counterpart, Boris Pistorius, said Western governments must sustain intense pressure on the Kremlin through sanctions, action against Russia’s so‑called “shadow fleet” and continued Ukrainian gains on the battlefield if they hope to shift President Vladimir Putin’s calculus. The ministers also unveiled a new collaborative programme focused on air defence, dubbed LEAP, for Low‑Cost Effectors and Autonomous Platforms, aimed at bringing cheaper autonomous drones and missiles into service in response to lessons drawn from Ukraine’s air war. According to the British government, the first project under the LEAP framework is due to be delivered by 2027.

The Krakow gathering came days after a third round of trilateral talks between negotiators from Ukraine, Russia and the United States ended in Geneva without a breakthrough, with territorial control in the eastern Donbas region emerging as the central obstacle. Russian officials are pushing for Ukraine to relinquish the entire Donbas, including areas still held by Kyiv, while Ukrainian representatives are seeking to lock in a ceasefire along existing front lines and secure Western safeguards against any renewed Russian assault. President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Moscow of trying to run down the clock on negotiations while signalling that a dignified end to the war remains possible, even as both Washington and Moscow press Kyiv to consider withdrawing from the remaining parts of Donbas in return for a rapid end to hostilities.

European capitals are meanwhile beginning to plan for what a post‑agreement security presence in Ukraine might look like, with Britain and France exploring options for a multinational peacekeeping or stabilisation force if a deal is struck. French President Emmanuel Macron has said Paris could contribute several thousand troops under such an arrangement, a prospect Russia has sharply criticised as a potential NATO military footprint on Ukrainian territory. Speaking in Kyiv, Zelensky said his government was prepared to agree to genuine compromises in pursuit of peace, but made clear that Ukraine would not trade away its independence or core sovereignty in any negotiated settlement.