Carbon removal must quadruple by 2050 to meet 1.5 °c target

Yesterday 09:25

By: Dakir Madiha

Carbon removal must quadruple by 2050 to meet 1.5 °c target

A global scientific assessment warns that carbon dioxide removal must expand at an unprecedented scale to keep the 1.5 °C climate goal within reach. The analysis finds that current national and corporate commitments fall far short of what is required by mid-century, creating a widening gap between ambition and climate necessity.

The report estimates that the world will need to remove about 8.75 billion tonnes of CO2 per year by 2050 under pathways aligned with the Paris Agreement. Existing pledges cover only around 3.6 billion tonnes annually, leaving a shortfall of roughly 5.2 billion tonnes. That gap has grown compared with earlier assessments, driven by continued growth in global emissions and slow deployment of removal technologies.

Today, total carbon dioxide removal stands at about 2.2 billion tonnes per year, equal to roughly 5 percent of global emissions. Almost all of this comes from land-based methods such as afforestation and ecosystem restoration, which account for 99.9 percent of removals. China, the United States, Brazil, Russia, and the European Union dominate contributions, reflecting both scale and land-use capacity.

Technological approaches remain marginal. Methods such as biochar, enhanced rock weathering, and direct air capture remove only about 2 million tonnes of CO2 annually. These solutions are growing at roughly 40 percent per year, but from a very small base. The report notes that this pace remains insufficient to support the large-scale deployment needed for climate stabilization, even if growth resembles early trajectories seen in renewable energy expansion.

The assessment also highlights structural risks in the emerging carbon removal economy. A small number of actors dominate demand and financing. Microsoft accounts for 82 percent of purchases of innovative carbon removal credits, while 85 percent of public demonstration funding is concentrated in the United States, Sweden, and Denmark. Market exposure is further amplified by reliance on voluntary carbon markets, where large shares of conventional removals originate in Latin America.

Researchers warn that timing is critical. The gap between current trajectories and required levels starts small by 2030 but expands rapidly in the following decades. A ten-year delay in emissions cuts could require the removal of at least 150 billion additional tonnes of CO2 to stay on track for climate targets. Analysts emphasize that emissions reductions must account for at least 80 percent of mitigation efforts, with carbon removal playing a complementary role rather than a substitute.

The period between 2026 and 2030 is identified as decisive for defining the future role of carbon removal in global climate strategy. Without rapid scaling of both emissions cuts and removal technologies, the probability of overshooting long-term temperature goals increases significantly.