Brent crude tops $110 as Gulf attacks disrupt global supply

10:20

By: Dakir Madiha

Brent crude tops $110 as Gulf attacks disrupt global supply

Brent crude futures rose above 110 dollars per barrel on Friday, reaching their highest level since mid-2022 as escalating attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf intensified concerns over prolonged supply disruptions.

The surge capped a volatile week in which Brent traded between roughly 107 and 119 dollars, while US West Texas Intermediate hovered near 96 dollars per barrel. Prices have climbed about 50 percent since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, when Brent was around 73 dollars.

Markets are now pricing in actual supply losses rather than potential risk. Iraq declared force majeure across its oil fields, drone strikes hit refineries in Kuwait, and an Israeli attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field prompted Tehran to expand retaliatory strikes against energy infrastructure across the Gulf.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly collapsed. Tanker traffic dropped from an average of 138 daily crossings to almost zero in the early days of the crisis. Between March 1 and March 15, only 89 vessels transited the route, compared with thousands under normal conditions. The waterway carries about 20 percent of the world’s daily oil supply.

US officials signaled efforts to contain the crisis. President Donald Trump said Washington was considering a phased end to the conflict, while the Pentagon confirmed additional Marine deployments to the region. The Treasury Department also allowed sanctioned Iranian oil shipments to pass through the strait in an effort to stabilize markets.

Earlier this month, the International Energy Agency coordinated a record release of strategic reserves, with member countries agreeing to supply 400 million barrels. The United States contributed 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, to be released over 120 days starting March 16.

The move briefly eased prices, but the effect faded as analysts warned the release represents only a limited share of global supply. Estimates suggest it covers about four days of global production and just over two weeks of Gulf crude flows.

Some analysts say prices could rise significantly further if disruptions persist. Scenarios from major banks indicate Brent could reach between 120 and 150 dollars per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several more weeks.

The price shock is already spreading through the global economy. US gasoline prices have climbed above 5 dollars per gallon, increasing pressure on households and businesses. Gas markets in Europe and Asia are also tightening after damage to Qatar-linked liquefied natural gas facilities at Ras Laffan, which account for about 20 percent of global LNG supply. Repairs could take between three and five years.

Analysts warn that prolonged disruption to Gulf energy infrastructure could trigger sustained inflation and weigh heavily on global economic growth.