France Braces for Decisive Second Round as Far-Right Surges in Parliamentary Polls

Monday 01 July 2024 - 17:10

Paris – A far-right, anti-immigration party has positioned itself as a potential major force in France after the first round of voting in the parliamentary elections saw a historically high turnout. The first-round results provide the latest evidence of surging support for the far-right in Europe, but the true test of this trend will come when France opens the polls for the second, decisive round of voting in one week.

French President Emmanuel Macron took an immense gamble by calling the snap election this year, and he has now issued a rallying cry, urging the nation's voters to turn out in force on July 7 to prevent the far-right, which made its best-ever showing in the first round, from ascending to the pinnacle of government in the second round.

Turnout was unusually high, with many voters indicating their desire either to block the far-right or to oust Macron's government.

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen declared that her National Rally party had "virtually wiped out" Macron's centrist power base in Sunday's first-round vote, capturing a third of the votes cast.

Macron called these elections hoping to rally voters against the far-right after parties like Le Pen's performed well in the Europe-wide elections for the European Parliament, which governs the European Union, in the spring.

"President Macron made a colossal error in judgment," political analyst Douglas Webber told CBS News. Webber said the first-round results show that Macron could be forced to share power with the National Rally — a party that opposes immigration, seeks to roll back the power of the European Union, and has even threatened to withdraw France from the U.S.-led NATO military alliance.

If the National Rally secures enough votes in the second round, party president Jordan Bardella could find himself in the country's second-highest position, as prime minister. Bardella has voiced intentions to scale back France's support for Ukraine in the face of Russia's ongoing invasion.

"That would be a very good result for Vladimir Putin, a very bad result for Ukraine and President Zelenskyy," said Webber.

However, this outcome is not a foregone conclusion. The French have a tradition of voting more ideologically in the first round — "with their hearts," as the saying goes — but then more tactically, "with their heads," in the second round.

Macron and the thousands of left-wing supporters who gathered in central Paris on Sunday to voice their concern at the far-right's performance will be hoping that this pattern holds true and that the actual gains in parliamentary seats won't mirror the windfall seen for Le Pen and Bardella's party in the first round.

"Right now, we have big problems with the right wing," said one young woman before the results came in. "We want more democracy, you know, we don't want people to feel afraid or scared about living in France."

But the political winds across much of the continent have been blowing decidedly to the right for more than a year. Should the far-right parties win big in France on July 7, Webber warned it could leave a power "vacuum at the heart of Europe," which has been dominated for years by the influence of its two biggest economies, France and Germany.

"No one, or no other group of countries, could conceivably fill the role that's historically been played by France and Germany," he said. "That's, of course, the main reason why so many people, observers, are extremely worried."

Among the concerned Europeans voicing their angst on Monday was Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who described the first-round results in France as a "very dangerous" political turn.

"This is all really starting to smell very dangerous," said Tusk, who suggested without offering specific evidence that "Russian influence" was behind the rise of "many parties of the radical right in Europe."

Tusk warned that France "will be forced to confront these radical forces," and he cautioned that "foreign forces and enemies of Europe are engaged in this process, hiding behind these movements."

Macron has called on voters across the political spectrum to block the far-right's precipitous rise with their votes in the final round on Sunday, setting the stage for a consequential showdown that could reshape the nation's political landscape and reverberate across Europe.