US-UK team develops real-time Arctic sea ice forecast model

12:50

By: Dakir Madiha

US-UK team develops real-time Arctic sea ice forecast model

A team of American and British scientists has created a new method for real-time, accurate predictions of Arctic sea ice extent. This tool proves vital for climate monitoring and indigenous communities relying on stable ice for hunting and livelihoods.

Published February 3 in the journal Chaos by AIP Publishing, the research marks a breakthrough in subseasonal forecasting. It enables projections from early summer through fall, when Arctic ice hits its annual minimum.

The approach models sea ice evolution as a complex interplay of atmospheric and oceanic factors oscillating at varied rhythms from long-term climate memory and annual seasons to fast-changing weather. Using daily extent data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center since 1978, the team pinpointed key relationships driving ice behavior.

Despite sharp year-to-year and regional variations, the model detects them with solid accuracy, said UCLA's Dimitri Kondrashov, a study co-author.

Tested in real time last September and applied retrospectively, it outperformed other methods for one- to four-month leads.

Beyond science, the stakes are high for Arctic indigenous groups who depend on predictable ice for hunting polar bears, seals, and walruses species needing ice as core habitat.

Economic activities like oil and gas drilling, fishing, and tourism also benefit from advance ice knowledge to cut risks and costs, Kondrashov added.

The need grows urgent amid Arctic transformation. March 2025 saw the lowest maximum sea ice extent in 47 years of satellite records at 14.33 million square kilometers. September 2025's minimum ranked 10th lowest on record.

Looking ahead, researchers plan to refine the model with added ocean and atmosphere variables like air temperature and sea-level pressure. These drive short-term fluctuations currently omitted.

This advance arrives at a pivotal moment. NOAA's 2025 Arctic Report Card notes the past two decades feature less extensive, younger, thinner ice than prior periods, reshaping fisheries, food security, and indigenous practices.