Germany views Russian covert attacks as prelude to NATO confrontation

Tuesday 06 January 2026 - 09:20

Germany's defense ministry has concluded that Russia is ramping up clandestine strikes on critical infrastructure as part of a calculated strategy that could prelude a direct military clash with NATO. This stark assessment appears in a classified operational plan, or OPLAN, obtained by Bloomberg, signaling a sharp escalation in Berlin's threat perception.

The document frames hybrid warfare tactics such as sabotage, cyberattacks, and disinformation not as mere background pressure but as deliberate steps to pave the way for open conflict. First reported by Politico and Welt, the plan underscores Germany's role as NATO's central European logistics hub, making it a prime initial target for hybrid assaults on energy and defense facilities before any conventional warfare erupts.

Only after an overt armed assault on NATO's eastern flank would Germany face intensified threats from long-range missiles, armed drones, and special forces, the ministry warns. The 1,000-page blueprint outlines how roughly 800,000 NATO troops would funnel through Germany toward the eastern front in a crisis, heightening its vulnerability to Russian disruptions.

Intelligence leaders have amplified these concerns. Martin Jäger, head of Germany's foreign intelligence service BND, cautioned in October that Russia could shift to open confrontation at any moment. Sinan Selen, his domestic counterpart, noted in December that Germany's support for Ukraine and its logistics role draw disproportionate Russian espionage, especially ahead of five regional elections in 2026.

This comes amid a broader surge in hybrid activities across Europe, with Western officials citing over 145 incidents since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The Associated Press has tracked cases like Polish rail sabotage, severed Baltic Sea undersea cables, cyberattacks, and drone incursions over key sites. Poland and Estonia, both bordering Russia and major Ukraine backers, have borne the brunt.

Germany summoned Russia's ambassador in December over a marked rise in menacing hybrid operations. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned last month that Moscow could strike an alliance member within five years, urging allies to brace for a conflict rivaling the world wars of past generations. Speaking in Berlin, he stressed that Russia is escalating secret operations against allied societies.