Cocoa prices plunge as global supply rebounds and demand weakens

Tuesday 14 April 2026 - 15:40

By: Dakir Madiha

Cocoa prices plunge as global supply rebounds and demand weakens

Global cocoa futures have dropped sharply from their historic peak, falling about 74 percent from nearly 12,900 dollars per metric ton in December 2024 to around 3,365 dollars this week. The decline reflects a rapid shift in market conditions, driven by improved harvests and softer chocolate demand. The reversal follows two years of supply disruption in West Africa that had pushed prices to record highs and strained global markets.

Production recovery in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which together account for roughly 70 percent of global cocoa output, has been a central factor in easing supply pressures. Output has also increased in Ecuador and other Latin American producers, reinforcing the global rebound. Commodity analysts at StoneX project a surplus of 287,000 metric tons for the 2025 to 2026 season, followed by another surplus of 267,000 tons the following year. Inventories tracked by ICE in US ports have reached their highest level in more than 19 months, confirming a return to comfortable supply conditions.

Market dynamics have also been influenced by financial positioning. A weaker US dollar triggered short covering in New York cocoa futures, pushing prices to a one week high despite the broader downward trend. Hedge funds had built their largest net short position in more than three years, leaving the market exposed to sudden rebounds. These movements highlight continued volatility even as fundamentals point to oversupply.

Despite the sharp drop in raw cocoa prices, retail chocolate prices remain elevated. Data cited by Axios show consumers paid about 14 percent more for chocolate in early 2026 compared with a year earlier. Easter confectionery sales declined by around 5 percent, reflecting resistance from buyers facing persistently high prices. The lag is largely due to production cycles, as many products were made months earlier using cocoa purchased at peak prices. Major manufacturers such as Hershey and Mondelez have indicated they remain hedged at higher cost levels, delaying the pass through of savings.

Industry analysts expect price relief for consumers to take time. Some forecasts suggest noticeable declines could emerge toward the end of 2026 as new harvests fully enter supply chains. Others indicate that limited price easing may begin later this year. Meanwhile, cocoa beans continue to accumulate in warehouses across West Africa, in some cases remaining unsold as buyers anticipate further price declines.