ASML to stop reporting bookings ahead of closely watched earnings
ASML is set to report its first quarter 2026 results on April 15, with investors focusing on both financial performance and a major change in disclosure policy. The company said it expects quarterly revenue between 8.2 and 8.9 billion euros, with gross margins of 51 to 53 percent. Analysts estimate revenue around 10.2 billion dollars, up more than 25 percent year on year, with earnings per share projected at 7.72 dollars.
A key shift emerged ahead of the release. According to Bloomberg, ASML will stop reporting net bookings, a metric that has long driven investor sentiment and share price movements. The decision introduces new uncertainty for a stock trading near record highs, as investors lose a critical signal used to gauge future demand for chipmaking equipment.
Regulatory risk is another central concern. A proposed US law known as the MATCH Act could restrict exports of ASML’s deep ultraviolet lithography systems to mainland China. Current controls already limit shipments of the most advanced EUV machines, but the new proposal would expand restrictions to additional tools and even block maintenance of installed systems. Chinese customers accounted for about 33 percent of ASML’s revenue in 2025, and the company had already expected that share to fall to around 20 percent in 2026.
The potential impact on earnings is significant. Analysts estimate the legislation could reduce ASML’s earnings per share by up to 10 percent if enacted. The company’s shares dropped sharply in Amsterdam following reports of the proposal, reflecting investor sensitivity to geopolitical developments and trade restrictions affecting the semiconductor supply chain.
Despite these risks, demand fundamentals remain strong. ASML’s extreme ultraviolet technology continues to gain traction in advanced memory production, including high bandwidth memory and next generation DRAM, driven by investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. The company ended 2025 with an order backlog of 38.8 billion euros, providing strong visibility into future revenue. Full year results showed 32.7 billion euros in net sales and 9.6 billion euros in net profit, with margins above 52 percent.
Investors will closely watch management commentary during the earnings call, particularly any updates to 2026 guidance. With bookings data no longer disclosed, forward looking signals will rely more heavily on qualitative guidance. Options markets are pricing in a potential share move of about 7.5 percent following the results, underscoring elevated uncertainty around both policy risks and demand outlook.
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