Gold holds near $4,730 as Heraeus flags downside risks

Tuesday 14 - 09:00

By: Dakir Madiha

Gold holds near $4,730 as Heraeus flags downside risks

Gold prices are stabilizing near $4,730 per ounce, but analysts at Heraeus warn that the market may face further consolidation or declines before any sustained rally resumes.

In its latest Precious Appraisal report dated March 30, Heraeus said short-term momentum remains bearish for both gold and silver. The firm pointed to the emergence of bearish engulfing patterns on price charts, a technical signal that indicates sellers are overtaking buyers. A similar pattern appeared in early 2022 and was followed by a drop in gold prices from around $2,000 to $1,600 over the next six months.

Gold has been trading within a narrow range since reaching a record high of $5,595 per ounce on January 29. Recent price action has hovered between $4,700 and $4,750. Silver has shown greater volatility, falling 37 percent from its late-January peak before recovering part of those losses. Heraeus said markets will likely need lower prices and more time to unwind the strong optimism that drove metals higher into early 2026.

Despite cautious technical signals, underlying demand remains firm. Data from the World Gold Council shows central banks purchased a net 27 tonnes of gold in February, up from 6 tonnes in January and close to the 2025 monthly average of 26 tonnes. Poland led purchases with 20 tonnes, followed by Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan with 8 tonnes each. China extended its buying streak to 16 consecutive months.

Major financial institutions continue to project higher prices over the longer term. JPMorgan forecasts gold reaching $6,300 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, citing ongoing reserve diversification. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target to $5,400, while UBP set a $6,000 target. UBS maintains a $5,600 forecast and ANZ expects prices around $5,800 in the second quarter.

Heraeus projects gold will trade between $3,750 and $5,000 خلال 2026, anticipating a correction in the first half of the year followed by a recovery supported by central bank demand and broader macroeconomic factors.