Morocco's Economic Outlook Dimmed by Drought Conditions
Morocco is poised to experience a slowdown in economic growth in the upcoming months, as highlighted by the recent report from the country's statistics office, Haut-Commissariat au Plan (HCP). The agency projects a modest annual growth rate of +2.4% for the first quarter of 2024, signaling a decline from the +3.5% rate observed in the early months of 2023.
The primary factor contributing to these subdued projections is the substantial 53% rainfall deficit afflicting the ongoing 2023/2024 agricultural season. The delayed cultivation of early crops introduces an element of uncertainty into the sector's performance, potentially resulting in a meager 0.5% increase in annual terms if there is no improvement in rainfall patterns.
However, amidst the challenges in the agricultural sector, there are positive developments in other segments of the economy. The secondary sector, comprising chemical, automotive, and manufacturing industries, is expected to maintain a robust growth rate of 2.9%. Particularly noteworthy is the extractive sector, which has experienced a remarkable 9.4% rebound from the previous year's decline.
In contrast, the services sector, characterized by more moderate growth, plays a pivotal role in the economy. Despite not experiencing rapid expansions, it is anticipated to contribute significantly, adding 1.6 percentage points to the overall GDP growth.
While the specter of inadequate rainfall looms over Moroccan farmlands in early 2024, the economic landscape holds glimpses of optimism that can serve as a buffer against potential challenges. The key lies in adaptability, as it emerges as a crucial factor for overcoming the existing hurdles and navigating through the uncertainties on the horizon.