Brexit Revisited Majority of Leave Voters Support Free Movement for Single Market Access

Thursday 12 December 2024 - 11:04

A recent study conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) highlights a significant shift in public opinion regarding Brexit. The findings suggest that a majority of Britons who voted to leave the EU are now open to the idea of reinstating free movement of people if it grants the UK access to the EU's single market. This sentiment echoes a broader desire on both sides of the Channel for a reassessment of EU-UK relations in the face of evolving global challenges.

Changing Context of EU-UK Relations

The ECFR study underlines the impact of major global events, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the election of Donald Trump as US president, which have reshaped perspectives on international cooperation. The report notes a “remarkable consensus” among citizens in the UK and major EU countries, including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Poland, in favor of closer ties.

Polling over 9,000 participants, the study revealed that 54% of Leave voters, including 59% from the UK’s "red wall" constituencies, now support free movement as a trade-off for single market access. Among all UK voters, 68% favor this approach, showing cross-party support except among Reform UK supporters, 44% of whom still back the idea.

Youth Mobility and Economic Cooperation

Support extends to a reciprocal youth mobility scheme for individuals aged 18 to 30, a proposal that EU leaders view as essential for enhancing relations but one that the British government has yet to endorse. The report emphasizes the urgency of rebuilding ties, citing the shared vulnerability of the UK and EU to global political and economic shifts.

Approximately half of Britons believe closer engagement with the EU would bolster the UK economy, improve security, and address key issues like climate change and migration. Similar sentiments were observed across EU countries, where respondents expressed willingness to consider economic concessions to strengthen cooperation with the UK, particularly in areas like security and research.

Bridging the Public-Government Gap

The study highlights a disconnect between public opinion and governmental stances on both sides. While EU officials have been cautious about offering special terms to the UK, and the British government hesitates to push for deeper ties, the public appears more pragmatic. Majorities in Germany and Poland, and pluralities in France, Italy, and Spain, support measures like allowing the UK “special access” to parts of the single market.

A Mutual Need for Closer Cooperation

The ECFR report underscores a growing recognition of interdependence between the UK and the EU. Europeans see greater cooperation as crucial for strengthening security, standing up to global powers like the US and China, and improving economic prospects. Meanwhile, Britons prioritize Europe over the US for future alliances.

Mark Leonard, director of the ECFR and author of the report, concludes that the geopolitical landscape has made a compelling case for resetting EU-UK relations. "Brexit-era divisions have faded, and citizens on both sides realize they need each other for safety and prosperity. It’s time for governments to align with public sentiment and pursue an ambitious reset."

The findings reflect a significant shift in attitudes toward Brexit and EU-UK relations, fueled by global events and shared challenges. Public opinion across Europe and the UK points toward a pragmatic and cooperative future, urging governments to take bold steps in strengthening ties for mutual benefit.