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Saudi Arabia navigates delicate ties as US sanctions test OPEC+ unity
Saudi Arabia is facing a critical diplomatic balancing act as escalating US sanctions on Russia's oil industry strain the fragile cohesion of the OPEC+ alliance. This comes just weeks ahead of a crucial White House meeting between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and US President Donald Trump, scheduled for November 18.
US sanctions reshuffle global oil dynamics
On October 22, President Trump imposed sweeping sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for over half of Russia's production and roughly 5% of the global oil supply. The sanctions have caused oil prices to surge by more than 5%, reaching around $66 per barrel. While this price hike presents opportunities for Saudi Arabia, it also complicates its strategy of balancing market share with maintaining OPEC+ unity.
The US is likely to pressure Saudi Arabia to ramp up oil production to offset the global supply disruptions caused by the sanctions. This puts Riyadh in a difficult position, as it seeks to strengthen ties with Washington while also preserving its key partnership with Russia within the OPEC+ framework.
High-stakes meeting at the White House
The upcoming meeting between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Trump marks the prince's first visit to Washington since 2018. The talks will focus on securing a defense pact between the two nations. However, Trump is expected to push for higher Saudi oil production, which would align with US interests in keeping energy costs low for American consumers.
This creates tension for Saudi Arabia, which has relied on its collaboration with Russia in OPEC+ to stabilize oil markets since 2016. Increased production could risk alienating Russia and other OPEC+ members, potentially destabilizing the alliance.
OPEC+ under pressure
The OPEC+ alliance faces a pivotal test at its upcoming meeting on November 2, where members are expected to decide on a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for December. This would mark the third consecutive monthly hike as Saudi Arabia focuses on reclaiming market share. However, concerns about oversupply remain, especially after recent price lows.
Russia’s position is increasingly precarious. Major Chinese state oil companies, including PetroChina and Sinopec, have halted purchases of Russian seaborne oil, while Indian refineries are scaling back imports. Analysts estimate this could remove 1.4 to 2.6 million barrels per day from global markets, compounding the pressure on Moscow.
For Saudi Arabia, this represents a defining moment in its OPEC+ leadership. While it may be willing to endure short-term price drops to appease Washington and boost market share, openly opposing Russia risks fracturing the alliance that has underpinned its energy strategy for nearly a decade.
The road ahead
As the November 18 White House summit approaches, Saudi Arabia must carefully navigate competing interests. Its ability to balance relations with the US and Russia while maintaining OPEC+ stability will shape the future of its energy policy and geopolitical influence.
