Morocco's solar energy capacity projected to soar by 2028

Morocco is poised to significantly enhance its solar power capacity, with projections suggesting an increase from 0.32 GW to an impressive 4.35 GW by 2028, according to a recent report by SolarPower Europe. This assessment, supported by the Global Solar Council and Morocco’s Cluster EnR, outlines the tremendous potential for solar energy in the country while highlighting challenges that may impede progress.

The findings come as Morocco intensifies efforts to achieve its goal of at least 52% renewable energy in its electricity generation capacity by 2030. The report emphasizes the country's exceptional solar resources, particularly in the southern regions, where global horizontal irradiation (GHI) peaks at 2,264 kWh/m²/year.

Currently, Morocco's total installed electricity capacity stands at 11,987 MW, with thermal sources contributing 6,676 MW and solar energy accounting for 831 MW, which includes both photovoltaic and concentrated solar power technologies. As noted in the report, Morocco is emerging as a pivotal player in the renewable energy sector, especially in solar power.

The study was developed through extensive consultations with key stakeholders, including representatives from both public and private sectors, as well as international organizations. It provides critical insights into the market dynamics and regulatory frameworks that are shaping the solar landscape in Morocco.

Despite ambitious targets, the report indicates that progress has been inconsistent. The latest data from the National Office of Electricity and Drinking Water (ONEE) reveals that Morocco's cumulative photovoltaic capacity reached 0.32 GW in 2023. Under SolarPower Europe’s medium scenario projections, this capacity is expected to steadily increase, potentially reaching 2.27 GW by 2027 and peaking at 2.97 GW in 2028. The report's more optimistic high scenario estimates a capacity rise to 4.35 GW by the same year.

Sonia Dunlop, director general of the Global Solar Council, remarked, "Morocco is a pioneer of solar in Africa, and we forecast the addition of 2.2 GW more by 2028." She highlighted that a solid regulatory framework, long-term ambition, and increasing electricity demand driven by the national green hydrogen strategy will contribute to falling solar costs and new investment opportunities.

Nevertheless, the report underscores that achieving these renewable energy goals will require overcoming several challenges, including a predominant focus on concentrated solar power (CSP), delays in photovoltaic project development, and issues related to grid integration.

As Morocco expands its solar capacity, the report stresses the necessity for critical infrastructure improvements. Strengthening north-south grid connections is particularly vital, as solar energy is primarily generated in southern regions with high solar irradiance, while major demand centers are located in the north.

A notable illustration of Morocco's commitment to solar development is the Noor Ouarzazate complex, recognized as one of the largest concentrated solar power facilities globally, with 510 MW of installed capacity and an additional 72 MW from solar PV. Completed in four phases between 2016 and 2018, this project exemplifies the nation's dedication to large-scale solar infrastructure.

To address infrastructural challenges, ONEE is planning a significant upgrade to the electricity grid. The report outlines a project to establish a 3 GW very high voltage (VHV) grid linking Oued Lekraâ in southern Morocco to Médiouna in the Casablanca region. This initiative will be executed in two phases, with the first phase expected to deliver 1,500 MW of capacity by 2026 and a second phase adding another 1,500 MW by 2028.

The report also highlights vital regulatory developments, including Law 82-21 (2023), which introduces new requirements for self-generation of electricity based on installation capacity and grid connection. Installations with a capacity of 5 MW or more now require prior approval from the relevant grid operator.

Moreover, recent pricing reforms have been implemented to attract investment. The 2024 Finance Act increased the Value Added Tax (VAT) on electricity prices, which will rise from 16% in 2024 to 20% by 2026. Electricity generated from renewable sources will see a reduction in VAT from 12% in 2024 to 10% in 2025.

Financial incentives are also outlined in the report, including a bonus of 5% of the investment for projects exceeding MAD 50 million (€4.7 million) that create a minimum of 50 jobs. Further pricing reforms have shown an average reduction of 38% in tariffs compared to 2023, enhancing the attractiveness of investment in the sector.

Fatima Zahra El Khalifa, director general of Cluster EnR, stated, "Thanks to its enormous solar potential, Morocco positions itself as a key player in the renewable energy sector." She emphasized that with strategic investments in solar infrastructure, Morocco is well-positioned to harness its full potential and accelerate its energy transition while fostering long-term sustainable growth.

In conclusion, the report recommends that Morocco continue its path toward electricity market liberalization to attract more private investments, thereby sustaining the progress made in the renewable energy sector.