Morocco faces growing climate risks from heat, drought and water stress

Morocco is among the African countries facing significant exposure to climate-related risks, with rising aridity, water stress, extreme heat and recurring agricultural drought emerging as major challenges. A new report by the OECD, the Global Green Growth Institute and the World Bank places Morocco within a wider group of African countries whose economies and populations are increasingly affected by changing climate conditions.

The report, titled New Data for Africa’s Changing Climate: Mapping Risks, Readiness and Policy Action, examines 28 African countries and combines data on climate hazards, adaptation readiness and mitigation policies. The findings underline the particular exposure of North Africa to heat, water scarcity and agricultural drought, while also identifying differences in the types of risks faced by individual countries.

Water scarcity emerges as a central concern

For Morocco, the combination of declining rainfall, prolonged dry periods and pressure on freshwater resources has become an increasingly important economic and environmental issue.

The OECD has previously highlighted Morocco’s vulnerability to climate change, noting that average temperatures have risen faster than the global average while precipitation has followed a declining trend over several decades. The country has also experienced repeated droughts and significant pressure on renewable freshwater resources.

These pressures extend beyond the environment. Agriculture remains particularly sensitive to changes in rainfall and water availability, making climate conditions an important factor in crop production, rural incomes and food security.

The latest African climate assessment points to soil-moisture deficits as another indicator of the pressure placed on agricultural systems. Such conditions can weaken crop resilience and increase the need for efficient water management and climate-adapted farming practices.

Morocco stands apart on extreme rainfall exposure

One of the report’s notable findings concerns the geographical differences in exposure to extreme precipitation.

While more than half of Africa’s cultivated land is exposed to extreme rainfall risks, Morocco is identified as an exception in the assessment. The country is expected to face comparatively moderate increases in extreme precipitation, unlike several countries where heavier rainfall could become a more pronounced hazard.

Extreme rainfall can damage agricultural land through soil erosion and prolonged waterlogging, while also disrupting planting cycles and reducing agricultural productivity. The contrast illustrates that climate vulnerability does not follow a single pattern across the continent.

For Morocco, the principal challenge identified by the broader assessment lies more strongly in aridity, heat and agricultural drought than in exposure to extreme rainfall.

Heat is becoming a growing urban challenge

Climate risks are also increasingly relevant to Morocco’s cities.

Higher temperatures can intensify heat stress, particularly in densely populated urban areas where buildings, roads and other infrastructure can amplify exposure. The OECD has previously noted that Morocco faces adaptation challenges linked to heat, reduced rainfall, rising sea levels and more extreme weather events.

Urban growth therefore creates an additional policy challenge. New housing, transport networks and public infrastructure built today can determine how effectively cities cope with future climate conditions.

The OECD and its partners point to resilient spatial planning, sustainable construction standards and nature-based solutions as tools that can reduce future adaptation costs and prevent cities from becoming locked into infrastructure poorly suited to a changing climate.

Climate policy still has room to expand

The report also examines the policy instruments African countries are using to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Morocco has already established climate targets and has developed policies aimed at reducing emissions and expanding the role of cleaner energy. The OECD notes that Morocco has committed to a 45.5% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared with its reference trajectory and has set a longer-term objective of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.

At the same time, the country, like many African economies, has room to expand market-based climate instruments and regulatory measures that can accelerate the transition away from carbon-intensive activities.

The broader African picture is particularly significant because the continent accounts for only about 4% of global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, according to the new OECD, GGGI and World Bank report.

Agriculture and food security remain exposed

The interaction between climate, agriculture and water is likely to remain one of Morocco’s most important resilience challenges.

Drought can reduce crop yields, affect rural employment and increase pressure on water resources. The OECD has already linked Morocco’s recent agricultural volatility to severe drought conditions and identified water and agriculture as two of the country’s major climate vulnerabilities.

This makes adaptation measures increasingly important, from more efficient irrigation and water management to agricultural practices better suited to changing climatic conditions.

The challenge is not limited to protecting agricultural production. Maintaining reliable food supplies also requires stronger resilience across storage, transport, distribution and other parts of the food system.

Resilient planning could limit future costs

The new report places significant emphasis on preventing what it describes as carbon lock-in, whereby investment decisions leave economies dependent on carbon-intensive technologies and infrastructure for decades.

For Morocco, this issue intersects with rapid urbanisation and infrastructure development. Integrating climate resilience into spatial planning and construction standards at an early stage can reduce the need for expensive modifications later.

Nature-based solutions can also contribute to urban resilience by helping cities manage heat and water-related pressures while improving the quality of urban environments.

Climate finance becomes increasingly important

The report also highlights public financial management as an important component of climate policy. Climate budget tagging and stronger systems for tracking climate-related expenditure can help governments identify where resources are being directed and improve access to international climate finance.

For Morocco, strengthening these mechanisms could complement existing climate and adaptation policies while helping mobilise additional financing for water security, resilient infrastructure and low-carbon development.

The country’s climate challenge is therefore broader than the frequency of droughts or rising temperatures alone. It increasingly involves how water, agriculture, cities, infrastructure, public finance and emissions policies are coordinated.

As climate pressures intensify across Africa, Morocco’s exposure to heat, aridity and water scarcity places adaptation high on the policy agenda, while its existing climate commitments provide a framework for expanding both resilience and mitigation measures.