Bank Al-Maghrib sees Morocco growth reach 4.4% as agriculture rebounds

Sunday 27 September 2026 - 14:30

Morocco's economy is set to expand by 4.4% in 2026, according to Bank Al-Maghrib's latest quarterly assessment, with a strong agricultural rebound and continued job creation providing important support to overall activity.

The central bank expects growth to slow to 2.9% in 2027 as agricultural output returns toward a more average level. At the same time, weaker momentum in non-agricultural sectors, higher energy costs and growing import needs are expected to remain significant challenges for the economy.

Agriculture provides a major boost to 2026 growth

The agricultural sector is emerging as one of the main drivers of Morocco's projected 2026 expansion. Bank Al-Maghrib estimates that agricultural value added will increase by 16% this year, supported by an expected cereal harvest of 93 million quintals.

The strength of the harvest marks a significant improvement compared with the level assumed for 2027. The central bank's projections are based on cereal production returning to an average of around 50 million quintals next year, which would result in an estimated 7.6% contraction in agricultural value added.

The contrasting outlook illustrates the extent to which Morocco's annual economic performance remains sensitive to agricultural conditions.

Non-agricultural activity loses momentum

Outside agriculture, economic activity is expanding at a slower pace.

Growth in non-agricultural sectors is expected to reach 3.1% in 2026, down from 4.5% in 2025. Bank Al-Maghrib attributes part of the slowdown to weaker-than-anticipated performance in several extractive and manufacturing industries.

The central bank expects non-agricultural growth to recover to around 4% in 2027, suggesting that the current moderation could be followed by renewed momentum in industrial and other non-primary activities.

More than 400,000 jobs created over one year

The labour market is showing a more resilient performance despite the moderation in parts of the economy.

Data from the High Commission for Planning's employment survey for the second quarter of 2026 indicate that Morocco created 406,000 net jobs over a 12-month period.

The increase in employment was accompanied by a decline in the national unemployment rate to 9.5%. The rate stood at 11.9% in urban areas and 5.4% in rural areas.

The employment figures provide another indicator of the broader impact of the economic recovery, although significant differences remain between urban and rural labour markets.

Energy bill puts pressure on external trade

The country's external accounts continue to face pressure from the rising cost of energy imports and increased purchases of capital goods.

Bank Al-Maghrib projects a 28.4% increase in Morocco's energy import bill in 2026, bringing it to approximately 138.1 billion dirhams. The figure is expected to decline to around 116 billion dirhams in 2027.

Imports of raw materials are also projected to increase sharply, by 53.4%, while purchases of capital goods are expected to rise by 15.6%, reaching approximately 250.7 billion dirhams.

The increase in capital-goods imports reflects stronger investment activity in both the public and private sectors, but it also adds to pressure on the country's trade balance.

Automotive exports gradually regain momentum

Morocco's export sector is expected to provide an important counterweight to rising import costs.

The automotive industry, one of the country's key export engines, is forecast to recover gradually after registering almost no growth in 2025. Export sales are projected to reach 202.2 billion dirhams by 2027.

The expected improvement comes as the sector remains central to Morocco's industrial and export strategy, with automotive manufacturing and related supply chains playing an increasingly important role in the national economy.

Phosphates benefit from stronger fertilizer prices

The phosphate and derivatives industry is also expected to contribute significantly to export growth.

Exports from the sector are projected to increase by 9.7% in 2026 and by a further 12.1% in 2027, reaching an estimated 122.6 billion dirhams.

The performance is being supported by higher international fertilizer prices, reinforcing the importance of phosphates and fertilizer products in Morocco's external trade.

Growth outlook remains dependent on several factors

Bank Al-Maghrib's projections point to an economy benefiting from a particularly strong agricultural season and sustained employment creation in 2026.

At the same time, the expected slowdown in agricultural output next year underlines the importance of continued expansion in non-agricultural sectors. Rising energy costs and strong demand for imported equipment and raw materials will also remain closely linked to the country's external position.

The combination of agricultural performance, industrial activity, export earnings and employment will therefore shape Morocco's growth trajectory as the economy moves toward 2027.