France's Resolute Rebuke: The Far-Right's Ambitions Curtailed Once Again

Monday 08 July 2024 - 08:00

In a momentous decision that echoed through the corridors of power, the French people have once again resolutely rejected the ascendancy of the far-right. Despite handing them a significant victory in the European elections and the first round of the parliamentary elections, when it came to a vote that truly mattered, the electorate drew back from the precipice.

This surprise upset, which has reduced the National Rally (RN) to a third-place finish — with perhaps 150 seats compared to predictions a week ago of nearly 300 — is due entirely to voters turning out in large numbers to stop them. The RN will argue, with some justice, that this was only possible because the other parties came together to strategically play the system.

They will note that the disparate parties of the left suddenly forgot their differences to form a new anti-RN coalition, and that the Macronites and the left, too, set aside their divergences. They will point out that nothing unites these politicians — from Edouard Philippe on the center-right to Philippe Poutou of the Trotskyist left — except their opposition to the RN, and that this lack of agreement bodes ill for the future.

Nonetheless, the fact remains: most people do not want the far-right, either because they oppose its ideas or because they fear the unrest that would inevitably attend its coming to power.

So, if Jordan Bardella will not be the country's next prime minister, who will be? That is the great unknown. And contrary to convention following previous French parliamentary elections, it may be weeks before we have an answer.

Because something has happened these past weeks to change the very nature of the French political system. As Alain Duhamel — a veteran of every election since Charles de Gaulle — put it, "Today, there is no longer any dominant party. Since Macron came to power seven years ago, we have been in a period of deconstruction of our political forces. Perhaps now we are beginning a period of reconstruction."

What he means is that there is now a multitude of political forces: three major blocs (left, far-right, and center), plus the center-right. And within these, there are competing tendencies and parties. With no party able to call the shots in the Assembly, a long period of haggling is now inevitable, aimed at forming a new coalition from the center-right through to the left.

It is far from obvious how it will be formed — given the mutual loathing that the different potential components have expressed until now. But we can bet that President Macron will now call for a period of "apaisement" — conciliation — after the tensions of the last weeks. Conveniently, this period will last through the Olympics and the summer holidays, allowing the French to recover their spirits.

In the meantime, he will designate somebody to lead the talks and reach out to the different parties. Will it be someone from the left? Will it be someone from the center? Will it be a political outsider? We do not know.

What seems certain, though, is that France is about to enter a more parliamentary system. Power will drain from President Macron and towards whoever heads the new government. Even if he manages to place a centrist in the prime ministership (far from easy, given the strength of the left), that person will exercise power in their own right and on the basis of parliamentary support. Macron — with no prospect of running again in 2027 — will be a diminished figure.

So, has the president lost his bet? Is he regretting his haste in calling the elections? Is he ready to take a backward step? We can be sure that is not the way Macron sees it. He will be saying that he called the vote because the situation was untenable; that he has clarified politics, offered the RN a fairer share of Assembly seats given their widespread support; and that his gamble that the French would never put the far-right in power was correct.

And in the meantime, he has not exactly gone away. Macron's power may be on the wane, but he is still there at the Elysée, consulting with his team, prodding politicians, still master of the political clock. As France enters uncharted waters, the president's role may be diminished, but his influence remains a force to be reckoned with in shaping the nation's future.